铁矿石期货日报-20250919

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On September 18, the main contract of iron ore futures showed a pattern of "opening high and moving low, oscillating within a range". The current core contradiction in the market lies in the game between the short - term National Day restocking expectations and steel mill restart demand and the supply - side pressure from the recovery of overseas miners' shipments and domestic ore supply. With the emotional disturbance after the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was realized at the macro level, the price fluctuated narrowly between 797 - 809 yuan/ton. The current fundamentals feature "strong demand expectations but weak reality, and the recovery of supply suppressing the upside space". The technical side lacks clear trend signals. In the short term, it is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the improvement rhythm of steel terminal demand and the progress of ore inventory depletion [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Contract行情: On September 18, 2025, the iron ore i2601 contract oscillated. The lowest point was 797, the highest was 809, and it closed at 800, with a decline of 0.12%. The trading volume was 308,200 lots, an increase of 53,900 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest was 533,500 lots, a decrease of 936 lots compared with the previous trading day [2]. - Variety Price: The 12 contracts of iron ore futures showed a reverse market pattern with near - term strength and long - term weakness. All contracts adjusted throughout the day, with the adjustment range between 0.5 and 2 points. The total open interest of the variety was 841,964 lots, an increase of 1,483 lots compared with the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the iron ore 2605 contract increased the most, by 2,612 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - Basis Data: According to the market data from Flush Futures, in the past 5 trading days, the basis of the main contract iron ore i2601 oscillated slightly, with a maximum of 30 yuan/ton, a minimum of 27 yuan/ton, and 27 yuan/ton on the day [7]. - Registered Warehouse Receipts: In the past 5 trading days, the registered warehouse receipts oscillated slightly, with a maximum of 1,900 lots, a minimum of 1,700 lots, and 1,700 lots on the day [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - Industry News: On September 18, the Iron Ore Working Committee of the China Iron and Steel Association held an iron ore working meeting in Beijing to analyze the current iron ore market situation, study recent key work, and make arrangements for the import iron ore port spot price index to be launched by the Beijing Iron Ore Trading Center [8]. - Macro News: The market has expectations for subsequent macro - policies, especially industrial policies such as "anti - involution" and "promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity". These policies aim to optimize the industry structure and may boost market sentiment and long - term supply expectations. Overseas, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting, in line with market expectations [9].