股指黄金周度报告-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to repeated digestion of domestic policy benefits and unimproved corporate profits, the stock index may face callback risks; after the Fed's September rate cut, the expectation of three rate cuts this year has been digested, and gold may enter a phase - based adjustment after a rapid rise. In the medium - to long - term, the stock index's valuation is dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth, and it will maintain a wide - range oscillation; gold may face a deep adjustment due to the fading of uncertainties and fully digested rate - cut expectations [39] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - From January to August this year, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline, industrial production decreased but remained at a high level, and the consumption growth rate slowed down marginally, indicating a weak foundation for China's economic recovery, with prominent characteristics of strong production but weak demand and strong service industry but weak manufacturing [4][39] 3.2 Stock Index Fundamental Data - The year - on - year growth rate of M1 continued to rise, and the gap with M2 further narrowed, reflecting increased fiscal spending and a transfer of government deposits to enterprises and residents. The A - share market was active with abundant liquidity [15] - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets approached 2.4 trillion yuan, hitting a new high. The central bank conducted 1.8268 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net injection of 562.3 billion yuan [18] 3.3 Gold Fundamental Data - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index in the US dropped from 58.2 to 55.4 in September, hitting a new low since June. The one - year inflation expectation was 4.8%, down 0.1 percentage point from last month, indicating negative impacts of US tariff policies, a slowdown in labor demand, and suppressed consumer confidence and spending [26] - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures continued to soar, reflecting increased demand for physical gold delivery and high market bullish sentiment [37] 3.4 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Be cautious of the callback risk of the stock index; gold may enter a phase - based adjustment. Medium - to long - term: The stock index will maintain a wide - range oscillation; gold may face a deep adjustment [39]