南华纸浆产业周报：驱动不足，震荡运行-20250919

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, pulp prices fluctuated within a range with reduced volatility. The near - term contradictions are not prominent. The relatively weak fundamentals have been priced in, and there are no new negative factors. Although the output of finished paper has increased, the upward driving force is still insufficient, and the market is expected to fluctuate. The Fed's interest rate cut has certain positive factors for long - term prices [1]. - In the near - term, the weak reality corresponds to weak prices. Port inventories are at a high level and de - stocking is not smooth. The prices of needle pulp and broadleaf pulp are restricted, but the impact of the Bu - needle warehouse receipt will weaken after the delivery of the 09 contract. In the long - term, the Fed's interest rate cut is beneficial to commodities, and the valuation of the 01 contract will increase, but there is no significant upward driving force for now [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Fundamentals: The fundamentals are relatively weak, with Bu - needle warehouse receipt pressure, high inventory and poor de - stocking, and the so - called "peak season is not prosperous". However, these factors have been priced in, and there are no new negative factors. The output of finished paper has increased this week, showing some improvement [1]. - Macroeconomics: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to the 4.00% - 4.25% range in September, which is the first rate cut since December 2024. This is due to slow employment growth and rising unemployment. It has certain positive factors for long - term prices [1]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Futures: It is recommended to wait and see, as the current market is in a state of range - bound fluctuations with limited bottom space and insufficient upward driving force, and the trading opportunities are not significant [5]. - Options: Consider selling near - month out - of - the - money call options and selling far - month out - of - the - money put options [5]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high needle pulp inventory worried about price drops, they can short pulp futures to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 5200 - 5300 [8]. - Procurement Management: For papermaking enterprises with low inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy pulp futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 4900 - 5000 [8]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: The US exempted pulp from the 50% tariff on Brazilian goods in July 2025 and further cancelled tariffs on most Brazilian pulp exports in September, reducing the export cost of Brazilian broadleaf pulp to the US and increasing the proportion of exports to the US [8]. - Negative Information: Since September, the pulp market has been sluggish, lacking the consumption support of the so - called "Golden September and Silver October" peak season [9]. - Spot Transaction Information: The report provides the latest prices, price changes, and other information of various pulp futures contracts and domestic spot pulp and finished paper [10][13]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Single - side Trend and Capital Movement: Last week, the sp2511 contract fluctuated with a small range, and the weekly position decreased by 21,328 lots [15]. - Basis and Spread Structure: The spread structure remains in a C - structure and has strengthened, indicating some improvement in long - term expectations [18]. Chapter 4: Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Inventory: As of September 18, the inventory was 2.122 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons, ending two weeks of de - stocking and turning to inventory accumulation. High - level inventory is difficult to reduce, and high shipments and high inventory restrict the upward elasticity of pulp prices [20]. - Supply and Demand: The supply pressure is still large, while the demand has slightly improved, and there is a certain degree of differentiation in finished paper. The output of most finished paper has increased, but the production profit of downstream enterprises has not improved [20].