Uxin(US:UXIN) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-09-19 11:22Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a rating of "Buy" for the company [1][9]. Core Insights - The company operates in the second-hand car market, which is expected to grow significantly, with a projected industry space of 35-40 million vehicles by 2030 [8]. - The company has adopted a "factory + large showroom" model, enhancing customer trust and purchase experience, which has led to improved operational efficiency and profitability [8]. - The company is expected to achieve a tenfold revenue growth over the next five years, with significant profit elasticity [10][11]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 1,399.36 million - 2024: 1,814.36 million - 2025E: 3,343.58 million - 2026E: 7,282.98 million - 2027E: 16,166.32 million - Year-over-year growth rates indicate a recovery trajectory, with 2025 expected to see an 84.28% increase [7]. - Net profit forecasts show a narrowing of losses, with a potential profit of 145.44 million by 2027 [7]. Market Analysis - The second-hand car market in China is currently underpenetrated, with a ratio of 0.6:1 for second-hand to new car sales, compared to over 2.4 in mature markets [49]. - The market is driven by a younger demographic, with 77% of buyers being from the post-80s and post-90s generations, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards second-hand vehicles [8][51]. - Policy changes have removed significant barriers to second-hand car sales, enhancing market fluidity and growth potential [59]. Competitive Landscape - Benchmark companies like CarMax and Carvana have demonstrated that strong inventory control and a direct sales network are crucial for maintaining quality and pricing in the second-hand car market [8]. - The company's operational model has shown promising results, with a significant increase in retail sales and a reduction in operational losses, indicating a potential turning point towards profitability [8][9]. Valuation and Market Potential - The report estimates a target market capitalization of 55-108 billion RMB for the company by 2026, based on projected revenue growth and operational improvements [9]. - The company is positioned to replicate its successful store model across major cities, potentially increasing sales volume significantly [10].