Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-09-19 11:26Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the photovoltaic industry, indicating that it is expected to outperform the overall market [8]. Core Insights - The National Standard Committee has proposed stricter energy consumption standards for polysilicon production, reducing the third-level energy consumption standard from ≤10.5 kgce/kg to ≤6.4 kgce/kg, which will lead to the forced shutdown or consolidation of high-energy-consuming capacity [3]. - The new standards are expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity, particularly affecting facilities established before 2020 that utilize the improved Siemens process [3]. - The report highlights a technological differentiation in production routes, with granular silicon showing significant advantages over rod silicon in terms of energy consumption standards [3]. - The implementation of the new standards is anticipated to keep polysilicon prices robust, as companies will need to increase prices to achieve breakeven under low operating rates [3]. Summary by Sections New Standards and Their Implications - The new energy consumption standards for polysilicon are significantly stricter, with specific limits set for different production methods [3]. - The transition period for companies to comply with the new standards is 12 months, with the official implementation expected in October 2026 [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like GCL-Poly Energy, Tongwei Co., and Daqo New Energy, as they are well-positioned to adapt to the new standards [3]. - Additionally, companies that upgrade their high-energy-consuming capacities to meet the new standards, such as Shuangliang Eco-Energy, are also recommended for investment [3]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the market is considering the establishment of large-scale funds for polysilicon storage, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [3].