铝产业链周度报告-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was in line with expectations. In the medium term, the logic of continuous liquidity easing remains, but after the short - term bullish factors are realized, risk assets may experience a limited - amplitude correction [10]. - The main theme of the economy is still stable growth. China will implement a series of policies to expand service consumption [11][12]. - The supply of alumina is expected to remain in an oversupply situation, and the spot price is expected to continue to adjust weakly in the short term [22][25]. - In August, the output of primary aluminum changed little, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in September [26][27]. - The real - estate market is still under pressure, but the new policies in first - tier cities have provided some support to the market [33][34]. - The production and sales of automobiles, especially new - energy vehicles, showed a good growth trend in August [36][37]. - The inventories of domestic and foreign exchanges both increased, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate [39][42][43]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 01 Report Summary - The Fed's interest - rate cut was in line with expectations, with a neutral - to - hawkish attitude. Medium - term liquidity is expected to be loose, and short - term risk assets may correct slightly [10]. - China will implement policies to expand service consumption, including selecting pilot cities and promoting the application of AI [12]. - The supply of alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be weak. The output of primary aluminum changed little in August, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in September [25][27]. - The real - estate market is under pressure, but first - tier city policies have provided some support. The automobile market, especially new - energy vehicles, showed good growth [34][37]. 02 Multi - and Short - Focus - Bullish factors: The enterprise's production capacity utilization rate continues to increase, and the social inventory remains at a low level [7]. - Bearish factors: The price of aluminum oxide continues to decline, and the market shows a weak trend [7]. 03 Data Analysis - Aluminum ore: From January to July 2025, the domestic aluminum ore production increased. The import of bauxite from Guinea remained stable, but attention should be paid to the impact of the referendum [16][21]. - Alumina: In August 2025, the output of alumina was at a high level, and the supply - surplus situation remained unchanged. The spot price is expected to adjust weakly [25]. - Primary aluminum: In August 2025, the output of primary aluminum was 3.8 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. The operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in September [27]. - Downstream processing: The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly, but high aluminum prices inhibited procurement [30]. - Real - estate: In August, the real - estate sales, investment, new - start, and completion areas all declined year - on - year. First - tier cities introduced policies, and the new - house transaction area in 38 cities increased year - on - year in early September [34]. - Automobile: In August, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [37]. - Inventory: The inventories of LME and SHFE aluminum increased. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate, and the spot premium decreased [39][43][45]. - Recycled aluminum: The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly in August, and the operating rate increased slightly last week. The inventory of aluminum alloy increased [48][51][59]. - Aluminum alloy imports and exports: In July 2025, the import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy reached a four - year low, and the export volume increased year - on - year [54]. 04后市研判 - For Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to the support around 20,600 and wait for the verification of the peak season of domestic downstream demand [62]. - The price of aluminum alloy still fluctuates with the price of aluminum, and it is recommended to be bullish on dips [60].