烧碱产业风险管理日报-20250919

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current spot price of caustic soda is weakening. The supply-side production fluctuates normally due to maintenance, and the chlor-alkali profit remains above 300. There is still restocking expectation in non-aluminum downstream, and the non-aluminum rigid demand is seasonally recovering. The future market depends on the spot rhythm, the strength of the peak season, and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory preparation [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Caustic Soda Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2500 - 2900 yuan/ton, with a current 20-day rolling volatility of 20.66% and a historical percentile of 28.5% over 3 years [2] 2. Caustic Soda Risk Management Strategy Suggestions Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished product inventory worried about price decline, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2601) at 2800 - 2850 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 50% to lock in profits and cover production costs; they can also sell call options (SH601C2800) at 70 - 80 yuan with a hedging ratio of 50% to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and willing to purchase according to orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601) at 2500 - 2550 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 50% to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs; they can also sell put options (SH601P2480) at 70 - 80 yuan with a hedging ratio of 50% to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot buying price if the price falls [2] 3. Caustic Soda Futures Price and Spread - On September 19, 2025, the prices of caustic soda 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 2723, 2734, and 2641 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 2.06%, 1.64%, and 2.36% compared to the previous day. The spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) were -11, 93, and -82 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 11, -17, and 6 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The basis of 05, 09, and 01 contracts (Shandong Jinling) were -317, -328, and -235 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -55, -44, and -61 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3] 4. Factory Price of 32% Caustic Soda Converted to Futures Price - On September 19, 2025, the factory prices of 32% caustic soda converted to futures price in different regions and brands showed little change compared to the previous day, except for Lutai in Shandong, which decreased by 2.2% to 2781 yuan/ton [4][6] 5. Factory Price of 50% Caustic Soda Converted to Futures Price - On September 19, 2025, the factory prices of 50% caustic soda converted to futures price in different brands showed little change compared to the previous day, except for Lutai, which decreased by 1.5% to 2720 yuan/ton [6] 6. Market Price of Flake Caustic Soda - On September 19, 2025, the market prices of flake caustic soda in different regions showed no change compared to the previous day [7] 7. Caustic Soda Grade/Regional Spread - On September 19, 2025, most caustic soda grade/regional spreads showed no change compared to the previous day, except for the spread of 50% caustic soda between Guangdong and Shandong, which increased by 50 yuan/ton to 640 yuan/ton [7] 8. Seasonality of Caustic Soda Futures Spreads and Basis - The report provides the seasonality charts of caustic soda futures spreads (09 - 11, 11 - 01, 01 - 03, 09 - 01) and the seasonality charts of caustic soda 09 and 01 contract basis in Shandong [8][9]