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东吴期货走势相对偏弱
Dong Wu Qi Huo·2025-09-19 11:38
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's main view: After a significant increase this week, it was expected that refinery operations would cool down next week. However, increased rainfall in the East China region might drag down regional rigid demand. Currently, asphalt consumption has entered the peak season, and the upside space depends on whether demand can drive down social inventories. However, demand is restricted by the capital side and is expected to have limited upside space, mainly following the cost side weakly [7]. - This week's trend analysis: This week, asphalt prices rose and then fell, showing a relatively weaker performance than crude oil and other heavy oils [7]. - This week's industry data: This week, refinery supply decreased while demand increased. The refinery operating rate slightly declined after a significant increase last week. Refinery shipments significantly increased due to pre - holiday stockpiling, leading to a decrease in factory inventories at a low level. The previously stubborn social inventories slightly decreased this week, showing marginal improvement, but the curve still significantly lags behind the same period in previous years. As the peak season deepens, it will limit the upside space for asphalt [7]. - This week's main view: This week, refinery shipments increased significantly due to pre - holiday stockpiling, but asphalt prices were not significantly boosted. High social inventories still restrict the upside space for asphalt, and high - priced supplies in some areas are starting to face pressure. It is expected that refinery operations will still gradually increase, but demand is restricted by the capital side and is expected to have limited upside space, mainly following the cost side weakly [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint - Last week's prediction was that refinery operations would cool down, but East China rainfall might affect demand. Currently in the peak consumption season, asphalt's upside depends on demand - driven social inventory reduction, but demand is capital - restricted with limited upside [7]. - This week, asphalt prices rose and then fell, weaker than crude oil and heavy oils. Refinery supply decreased, demand increased, operating rates dipped slightly, shipments rose due to stockpiling, and factory inventories declined. Social inventories improved marginally but lagged behind previous years [7]. - High social inventories still limit asphalt's upside, and some high - priced supplies face pressure. Refinery operations are expected to gradually increase, but demand has limited upside and will follow the cost side weakly [7]. 3.2 Data Overview 3.2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Spreads, and Basis - Presented historical data on asphalt futures spreads (BU9 - BU12), basis in East China and Shandong, and asphalt main contract prices [9][10]. 3.2.2 Asphalt Supply - Included data on asphalt plant operating rates, weekly production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate over multiple years [12][13]. 3.2.3 Asphalt Demand - Showed data on asphalt shipments, apparent consumption, paver sales, and the product of paver sales and apparent consumption over multiple years [15][16]. 3.2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports - Provided data on asphalt imports and exports, import windows in East China and South China, and the price differences between imported完税 prices from South Korea and Singapore and the mainstream prices in East and South China [18][19]. 3.2.5 Asphalt Inventory - Displayed data on factory inventories, social inventories, futures inventories, and monthly futures delivery volumes over multiple years [21][22]. 3.2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Presented data on the operating rate, shipments, factory inventories, and social inventories of asphalt in Shandong over multiple years [24][25]. 3.2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Showed data on the operating rate, shipments, factory inventories, and social inventories of asphalt in East China over multiple years [27][28]. 3.2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Provided data on the operating rate, shipments, factory inventories, and social inventories of asphalt in South China over multiple years [30][31]. 3.2.9 Asphalt Refinery Maintenance - Listed multiple asphalt refineries' maintenance information, including the maintenance device (atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit), production capacity, maintenance start time, and end time (most are undetermined). The total annual production capacity of the refineries under maintenance is 2026 tons, and the maintenance loss is 69.99 million tons [33].