Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The terminal demand of the photovoltaic industry is expected to weaken, and the profits of the industrial chain will be redistributed. The upstream silicon material end has been continuously holding up prices, and the price increase has gradually spread to the silicon wafer and battery chip sectors. However, domestic power stations have a low acceptance of the component price increase, and the power station yield will be significantly suppressed under the "Document No. 136." Subsequently, the upstream sectors with substantial accumulated profits may gradually transfer profits to the downstream to achieve a reasonable distribution of profits among all sectors of the industrial chain and promote healthy development [4][54]. - From the perspective of polysilicon futures, there is an oversupply in the third quarter, and the oversupply amplitude will decrease in the fourth quarter. In September, although policy expectations dominated the market, it was difficult to see more unexpectedly positive stimuli in the short term. Based on the upstream and downstream production quotas, there will also be an oversupply situation in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the market will decline with the cooling of sentiment and gradually return to the fundamental narrative [5][55]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Photovoltaic Terminal Demand Data Tracking: Short - term Import Demand from the Indian Market Provides Support; Pay Attention to the Domestic Rush - to - Install Volume 1.1 China's Photovoltaic Installation Tracking: The "Rush - to - Install Tide" is Over, and the Installation Demand Enters a Vacuum Period. Pay Attention to the Year - End Rush - to - Install Volume - In July 2025, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 11GW, a year - on - year decrease of 48%. From January to July, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 223.3GW, a year - on - year increase of 81%. In the first half of 2025, the proportion of distributed installation in the newly installed capacity increased significantly. In the second half of the year, the overall installation rhythm slowed down significantly. The distributed installation volume contracted after the pre - consumption was overdrawn, and the centralized installation also faced the same situation. The market is more concerned about the power station yield under the "Document No. 136" of each province [2][9]. - Each province has successively issued detailed rules under the guidance of "Document No. 136." The mechanism electricity price of incremental projects will be lower than the coal - fired benchmark price. Since most of them are solicitation drafts, the specific bidding start time is not clear. After implementing the mechanism electricity price, the photovoltaic installation yield in each province will decline significantly, and it may be difficult to meet the internal investment decision - making requirements of power stations [10][12]. - In the second half of the year, centralized power stations will become the main support for domestic installation. There will still be a rush - to - install at the end of the year, but considering the return situation, it is expected that the overall rush - to - install volume will be less than in previous years. The annual newly installed photovoltaic capacity in China is about 298GW, with a year - on - year growth rate of about 7%, including about 174GW of centralized installation and about 124GW of distributed installation [15]. 1.2 European Photovoltaic Installation Tracking: Economic Weakness, Subsidy Decline, etc. Restrict Local Photovoltaic Installation - In July 2025, China exported about 7.5GW of components to Europe, a month - on - month decrease of 4% and a year - on - year decrease of 20%. From January to July, the cumulative export volume was 50.4GW, a year - on - year decrease of 19%. After the increase in the second quarter, the overall component import volume has shrunk since the third quarter. The cancellation of component export tax rebates has led to a "rush - to - export" volume, which has advanced subsequent exports. The cancellation time may be postponed to the end of the year [19]. - The overall European economy is weak, government subsidies for photovoltaic installations are declining, traditional energy prices are falling, and some countries face the problem of low electricity consumption growth that cannot match power generation growth. These factors have led to a slowdown in installation growth. It is expected that the newly installed capacity in Europe in 2025 will be about 71GW, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 5% [20]. 1.3 US Photovoltaic Installation Tracking: Trade Barriers, Counter - Tariffs, etc. Apply Negative Pressure, and Local Photovoltaic Development is also Restricted - In June 2025, the monthly newly installed photovoltaic capacity in the US was 2.5GW, a month - on - month increase of 46% and a year - on - year decrease of 13%. From January to June, the cumulative installed capacity was 16.1GW, a year - on - year increase of 4%, and the year - on - year cumulative growth rate continued to decline. Due to the rush - to - install in October - November 2024, the installation rhythm in 2025 has slowed down [24]. - In August 2025, the US launched anti - dumping and counter - subsidy investigations against India, Indonesia, and Laos. In September, the USITC ruled that their imports caused substantial damage to the US. It is expected that counter - subsidy preliminary rulings will be announced before October 10, and anti - dumping preliminary rulings will be announced before December 24. There is a significant rush - to - import situation in components and battery chips from these three regions in the short term [24]. - In July 2025, the US government passed the "Big and Beautiful Act," which includes the early cancellation of the investment tax credit policy and the adjustment of the production tax credit policy. It also raises the threshold for local products. Policy negatives such as trade barriers and counter - tariffs have hindered the development of the US photovoltaic market. It is expected that the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in the US in 2025 will further decline to about 32GW, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 13.5% [25][27]. 1.4 Indian Photovoltaic Installation Tracking: Policy Subsidies Boost Local Installation Demand and Drive China's Battery Chip Exports in the Short Term - In August 2025, India's newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 4.1GW, a year - on - year increase of 85%. From January to August, the cumulative newly installed capacity reached 25.3GW, a year - on - year increase of 57%. India plans to invest $386 billion in renewable energy and aims to install 500GW of renewable energy facilities by 2030, including 280GW of photovoltaic. Multiple subsidy policies end in the 2026 fiscal year, which has driven the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in 2025. It is expected that the local newly installed photovoltaic capacity in 2025 will be around 35GW and maintain a high growth rate [30]. - India has policies to promote local industries. Although the local component and battery chip production capacity is increasing, the battery chip production capacity still cannot meet the demand, so it still needs to import battery chips [31]. 1.5 Other Market Photovoltaic Installation Tracking: Photovoltaic Installations in Various Countries are Affected by Policy and Subsidy Changes No specific quantitative or qualitative summary content provided in the text, only some data charts are mentioned. 2. Dynamic Tracking of Each Link in the Photovoltaic Industrial Chain: The Terminal Price Increase Transmission is Blocked; Pay Attention to the Upstream Price - Holding Strength 2.1 Silicon Material Link: Policy Expectations are Marginally Cooling; Pay Attention to the Actual Supply - and - Demand Situation in the Fourth Quarter - On the supply side of polysilicon, although some silicon material factories reduced production in September, some second - and third - tier factories resumed production, so the overall monthly production reduction was not large, with the production in September about 12.7 tons. In October, with the expansion of the production reduction scale of leading enterprises, the monthly production is expected to further decline to 12 tons. The market is more concerned about the establishment rhythm of the platform company and the implementation of the polysilicon production/sales quota system [34]. - The platform company plans to be established by leading polysilicon producers to acquire excess production capacity, but there are different views on the establishment time. The production quota for September - December is still under negotiation. Considering the demand of 40 - 45 tons from September to December, the production quota is crucial. The monthly sales quota is about 10 tons, and enterprises may have a production - reduction drive if the inventory pressure increases [34][35]. - On the demand side, the silicon wafer link is increasing production due to low inventory, and the monthly demand is increasing. After the silicon wafer link reduced production and cleared inventory, the fundamentals improved. The strong demand from the Indian market for battery chips also supports the silicon wafer price. However, after the silicon material enterprises significantly increased the quotation at the end of August, the silicon wafer link has replenished 2 - 3 months of raw material inventory, and the short - term procurement volume is light. The next procurement node is expected to be in mid - October [35]. - In terms of supply and demand, there is an oversupply in the third quarter, and the oversupply amplitude will decrease in the fourth quarter. In September, although policy expectations dominated the market, it was difficult to see more unexpectedly positive stimuli in the short term. Based on the upstream and downstream production quotas, there will also be an oversupply situation in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the market will decline with the cooling of sentiment and gradually return to the fundamental narrative. In the short term, considering the impact of the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of November, the operating range of the polysilicon futures PS2511 contract is expected to be between 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [5][36]. 2.2 Silicon Wafer Link: The Silicon Wafer Price is Passively Increased, and the Profit Repair Boosts the Production Arrangement Expectation - On the supply side, since July, the silicon wafer link has experienced a process of "cost increase - passive production reduction - silicon wafer inventory clearance - silicon wafer price increase." The silicon wafer price has been passively increased, and the profit has been continuously repaired, driving the continuous increase in the weekly production arrangement. In September, the production is expected to increase month - on - month to about 58GW, corresponding to a polysilicon consumption of 11.6 tons. The total production quota for the fourth quarter is expected to be 155GW. In October, the production arrangement will still be supported by the raw material procurement for the year - end photovoltaic rush - to - install in China, with the production estimated to be around 59 - 60GW. The production arrangement will shrink from November to December due to demand decline and production quota constraints [39]. - On the demand side, the export demand is a short - term concern. The demand from the Indian market has increased significantly in the short term, mainly for 183mm silicon wafers. The inventory of this type of silicon wafer has been cleared, which supports the price. The demand for 210R silicon wafers is relatively weak, and the inventory is expected to increase. In September, the battery chip production arrangement is expected to be about 60GW, an increase from August [40]. - In terms of the supply - and - demand pattern, the silicon wafer link is still in a state of inventory clearance in September, which strongly supports the silicon wafer price. Pay attention to the downstream acceptance ability in the future [40]. 2.3 Battery Chip Link: The Strong Demand for Battery Chips from the Indian Market Supports the Short - Term Production Arrangement - On the supply side, boosted by the demand from the Indian market, the production arrangement in September is expected to increase month - on - month to about 60GW. The total production quota for the fourth quarter is expected to be about 160GW [43]. - On the demand side, the production arrangement of the domestic component link may decrease due to factors such as production reduction by some leading enterprises. However, overall, although the domestic component factories have a production - reduction expectation, the export demand to India can support the battery chip price [43]. 2.4 Component Link: There is Short - Term Demand Support, but be Alert to the Demand Weakness after the Rush - to - Install Ends - In terms of supply and demand, it is expected that the component production arrangement will remain relatively stable from September to October. The component production arrangement largely depends on terminal demand and exports. Domestic power stations have difficulty accepting the component price increase, and they are mainly fulfilling previous low - price orders. Under "Document No. 136," the power station on - grid electricity price is expected to decline significantly, and power stations are concerned about high - priced components. Some leading enterprises reduced production during the National Day holiday. In October, the seasonal demand for the year - end photovoltaic rush - to - install will increase, which will support the component production arrangement. It is expected that there will be a small amount of rush - to - export of components at the end of October, and the terminal demand will weaken from November to December, leading to a decline in component production [47]. - Overall, although there is short - term demand support for components, the price increase is difficult to be accepted by the terminal, the prices of some component specifications have declined, and the cost - increase pressure is becoming more prominent. After the rigid procurement due to the year - end rush - to - install ends, both the domestic and export markets are expected to weaken [47]. 3. Profit Flow in the Photovoltaic Industrial Chain: The Upstream has High Profits, but the Downstream Profits are Under Pressure The upstream silicon material link has continuously held up prices, and the price increase has spread to the silicon wafer and battery chip links. Although the short - term export demand from the Indian market can absorb this price increase, domestic power stations have a low acceptance of the component price increase, and the power station yield will be significantly suppressed under "Document No. 136." Subsequently, the upstream sectors with substantial accumulated profits may gradually transfer profits to the downstream to achieve a reasonable distribution of profits among all sectors of the industrial chain and promote healthy development [4][54]. 4. Summary: There is an Expectation of Terminal Weakening, and the Profits of the Industrial Chain will be Redistributed - China: The newly installed photovoltaic capacity in July 2025 was 11GW, a year - on - year decrease of 48%. From January to July, it was 223.3GW, a year - on - year increase of 81%. In the second half of the year, the centralized installation is affected by policies, and the power station yield decreases. There will be a rush - to - install at the end of the year, but the volume is expected to be less than in previous years. The annual newly installed capacity is about 298GW, with a year - on - year growth rate of about 7%, including about 174GW of centralized installation and about 124GW of distributed installation [2][52]. - Europe: In July 2025, China exported about 7.5GW of components to Europe, a year - on - year decrease of 20%. From January to July, the cumulative export volume was 50.4GW, a year - on - year decrease of 19%. Due to economic weakness and subsidy decline, the demand is slowing down. It is expected that the newly installed capacity in 2025 will be about 71GW, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 5% [19][53]. - US: In June 2025, the monthly newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 2.5GW, a year - on - year decrease of 13%. From January to June, the cumulative installed capacity was 16.1GW, a year - on - year increase of 4%, and the cumulative growth rate continued to decline. Due to policy negatives such as trade barriers, the newly installed capacity in 2025 is expected to further decline to about 32GW, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 13.5% [24][54]. - From the industrial chain perspective, the upstream silicon material link holds up prices, and the price increase spreads downstream. However, domestic power stations have a low acceptance of the component price increase. The upstream may transfer profits to the downstream to achieve reasonable profit distribution. In terms of polysilicon futures, there is an oversupply in the third quarter, and the oversupply amplitude will decrease in the fourth quarter. The market is expected to decline with the cooling of sentiment and return to the fundamental narrative. In the short term, the operating range of the PS2511 contract is expected to be between 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [54][55].
光伏产业链数据洞察:终端存走弱预期,产业链利润将重新分配
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-19 11:51