全国碳市场：四季度能否如期反弹？

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The continuous decline in the national carbon market price is due to the increase in actual circulating quotas, which has changed the trading mentality of both buyers and sellers. Whether the market can rebound in the fourth quarter depends on whether the net selling ratio of surplus enterprises' own allowances remains around 40% or significantly exceeds this level. After analyzing the operating conditions and carbon trading conditions of 31 listed companies in the A-share thermal power sector, the report moderately raises the expected selling ratio of surplus enterprises' own allowances. Although the procurement demand to be met by the voluntary selling of allowances by surplus enterprises decreases, there is still a possibility of a rebound in the fourth quarter [1][2]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Carbon Price Decline Caused by Increased Circulating Quotas According to the quota transfer rules, if all surplus enterprises implement the "maximum transfer" strategy, more than 200 million tons of mandatory circulating quotas will be added to the market from 2024 to 2025. The increase in actual circulating quotas has reversed the trading mentality of both buyers and sellers, leading to a continuous decline in carbon prices. As of September 18, 2025, the closing price of the national carbon market composite price was 60.33 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 34%, hitting a new low in nearly 26 months [4]. 3.2 Fourth - Quarter Market Trend Depends on Selling Ratio of Surplus Enterprises - "Maximum Transfer" Scenario: If all surplus enterprises implement the "maximum transfer" strategy, after subtracting mandatory circulating quotas, the procurement demand (including compliance settlement and basic transfer) to be met by the voluntary selling of allowances by surplus enterprises will be about 50 - 60 million tons in 2025. At this time, the exhaustion of mandatory circulating quotas may support a carbon price reversal, and the faster the release of mandatory circulating quotas, the earlier the market may rebound [5]. - "Excessive Selling" Scenario: Whether surplus enterprises adopt the "excessive selling" strategy is affected by two factors: the company's operating conditions and whether decision - makers tend to sell allowances to make up for operating losses, and decision - makers' expectations of the market price trend in 2026 and beyond [5]. 3.3 Indicator Selection for Assessing Enterprises' Quota - Selling Tendency - Measuring Operating Conditions: The report selects the "net profit margin attributable to the parent company after excluding non - recurring gains and losses" as the core indicator to measure the operating conditions of thermal power enterprises, with a statistical period from 2021 to 2025, calculated on a year - to - date (YTD) basis [7]. - Observing Quota Selling: The report sorts out the carbon emission trading income and expenditure of 31 companies based on their performance reports, with the same statistical period and calculation method [8]. - Characterizing Compliance Pressure: The report uses the "explicit carbon cost - to - income ratio" to characterize the company's compliance pressure [9]. - Limitations of Indicator Design: The "carbon emission trading" mentioned in the performance reports may involve multiple markets; most companies only disclose carbon emission trading information in semi - annual and annual reports; not all companies include carbon emission trading revenues and expenditures in non - recurring gains and losses, so data comparability is limited [10]. 3.4 Indicator Comparison Results - Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of Carbon Market Compliance on Company Operations: More than 90% of the sample enterprises had an explicit carbon cost - to - income ratio of less than 1% in 2024, and about 40% of the sample enterprises showed a trend of increasing compliance pressure year by year [10]. - Operating Conditions of Power Enterprises and Timing of Selling Surplus Quotas: It is expected that 24 sample companies had overall quota surpluses in the first two compliance cycles. Among them, the trends of the "net profit margin attributable to the parent company after excluding non - recurring gains and losses" and the "net carbon yield" (in reverse order) of 15 companies were basically synchronized, indicating that these enterprises may tend to "sell allowances to make up for operating losses". In the first half of 2025, 4 of these 15 companies had a positive balance of carbon emission rights, and some companies showed signs of weakening operations, with a high probability of adopting an "excessive selling" strategy. Some companies also showed a downward trend in their operating performance in the first half of 2025. Although they did not disclose carbon emission trading revenues and expenditures, they may have quota surpluses and tend to sell more than 40% of their surplus allowances in the second half of the year. Overall, the thermal power industry has had good operating conditions this year. Only a few enterprises are likely to "excessively sell" surplus allowances due to operating losses [2][15][17].