Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Steel is expected to oscillate strongly, constrained by weak demand expectations and supported by "anti - involution" and Fed rate cuts [2] - Iron ore is likely to oscillate at a high level in the short term, influenced by high supply, short - term demand support, and expectations of macro - policies [3] - Coke and coking coal are likely to oscillate strongly, with sufficient carbon supply, high - level downstream iron - water providing support, and pre - National Day restocking sentiment [4][6] - Ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon are likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, with improved price valuations and the impact of "anti - involution" [7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - Thread demand improved this week with reduced production and inventory, while hot - rolled demand declined with increased production and re - accumulated inventory [2] - High - speed blast furnace复产, but limited by poor profit per ton, and attention should be paid to environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [2] - Downstream industries have weak domestic demand, but steel exports remain high, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [2] Iron Ore - Global shipments are high, domestic arrivals decreased slightly, and port inventory decreased this week [3] - Terminal demand is weak, but high - level iron - water and pre - holiday restocking by steel mills support short - term demand [3] - The market expects macro - policies, and external factors like Fed rate cuts influence the market, with short - term high - level oscillation expected [3] Coke - There is still an expectation of the third round of price cuts, and some coking plants started the first round of price increases, with intensified competition [4] - Coking profit is average, daily production slightly decreased, and overall inventory increased [4] - Ample carbon supply, high - level downstream iron - water, and pre - National Day restocking make the price relatively firm and likely to oscillate strongly [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal mine production increased slightly, and pre - National Day restocking sentiment is strong [6] - Total coking coal inventory increased, production - end inventory decreased slightly, and the possibility of further large - scale capacity release is low [6] - Ample carbon supply, high - level downstream iron - water, and pre - National Day restocking make the price relatively firm and likely to oscillate strongly [6] Ferrosilicon Manganese - Iron - water production continued to rise, and ferrosilicon manganese production increased to a high level [7] - Ferrosilicon manganese inventory did not increase, and demand for futures and spot is good [7] - Manganese ore prices increased, and with "anti - involution", the price is likely to rise [7] Ferrosilicon - Iron - water production continued to rise, export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, and secondary demand declined slightly [8] - Ferrosilicon supply returned to a high level, market demand for futures and spot is good, and on - balance inventory decreased slightly [8] - With improved price valuation and "anti - involution", the price is likely to rise [8]
黑色金属日报-20250919
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-09-19 11:55