能源日报-20250919

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: The operation rating is not clearly defined in text, but it can be inferred from the star system that it may be a more bullish or bearish trend based on the context. The star rating is not specified in a way that can be directly translated to a standard investment rating, but the analysis shows a mid - term bearish trend. [1][2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct bullish or bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity. [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The text does not clearly state its star rating, but the analysis provides investment suggestions. [3] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct bullish or bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity. [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆, suggesting a more distinct bullish or bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity. [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil: The mid - term bearish trend of crude oil prices remains unchanged. Short - term geopolitical factors may cause temporary supply fluctuations, but the rebound space is increasingly limited. A strategy combination of high - level short positions and call options is recommended. [2] - Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil: The decline of fuel - related futures is relatively limited. The low - sulfur supply pressure is limited, and it is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of expanding the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils when the spread is low. [3] - Asphalt: The asphalt futures continue the range - bound trend. The price has bottom support and limited downward space. [4] - LPG: The overseas market is strong, and the short - term price - to - oil ratio is expected to be strong. The spot has good bottom support, and attention should be paid to the peak - season stocking market. [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The SC11 contract fell 1.87% overnight. Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels due to a sharp increase in exports, while the increase in middle - distillate inventories raised market concerns about demand. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut did not bring more - than - expected positive effects. [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - After the frequent attacks on Russian refineries, the weekly loading volume of Russian fuel oil has continued to decline. The increasing operating rate of Shandong refineries is beneficial to the feedstock demand for fuel oil. The growth in ship - fuel consumption in the Singapore market is concentrated in the high - sulfur ship - fuel sector. The third - batch low - sulfur fuel oil export quota in 2025 is 700,000 tons, lower than 1 million tons in the same period last year, but the cumulative quota has increased by 900,000 tons year - on - year. The low quota utilization rate limits the low - sulfur supply pressure. [3] Asphalt - The asphalt futures continue the range - bound trend as crude oil continues to correct. The factory and social inventories continue to decline, but the decline has slowed down compared to the beginning of the week. As of now this week, the cumulative warehouse receipts in East China warehouses have decreased by 3,050 tons, and 1,330 tons of factory - warehouse receipts were cancelled today. The downward pressure on East China's spot prices has eased, while the spot prices in South China and Hebei remain stable. [4] LPG - The overseas market remains strong. Due to the high import demand and rising geopolitical risks, the overall sentiment is bullish. In South China, the impact of typhoons has reduced imported goods. The good chemical profit margins can maintain a high operating - rate pattern, and the short - term price - to - oil ratio is expected to be strong. The spot has good bottom support. [5]