格林大华期货鸡蛋周报：现货滞涨回落，鸡蛋高空思路不变-20250919

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Corn: Support and pressure coexist, maintaining an interval trading strategy. In the short term, focus on the new - season corn planting cost and wheat - corn price difference; in the medium term, conduct band trading around the new - season corn drivers; in the long term, follow the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost [5][6]. - Pig: Pig prices are expected to stop falling, and short positions on pigs are in the profit - taking range. Near - month contracts are based on supply - demand logic, and far - month contracts focus on the expected difference in sow de - stocking [9][10]. - Egg: The spot price has stopped rising and started to fall. Maintain a short - selling strategy before large - scale concentrated chicken culling. Pay attention to the culling amplitude in the long term [15][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn - Important Information: On the 19th, north - south port prices were stable, deep - processing enterprise purchase prices fluctuated, corn futures warehouse receipts decreased, the wheat - corn price difference was positive and expanding, and August 2025 corn imports were at a three - year low. From January to August 2025, cumulative imports decreased by 92.92% year - on - year [5]. - Market Logic: Short - term: The lower support of the futures price is the new - season corn planting cost, and the upper pressure is the wheat - corn price difference. Medium - term: Conduct band trading around new - season corn drivers. Long - term: Follow the import substitution and planting cost pricing logic, focusing on policy orientation [6]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain an interval trading strategy. For the 2511 and 2601 contracts, the support is at 2150 - 2160. If the support is broken, there may be further downward space; otherwise, it will remain within the interval [6]. Pig - Important Information: On the 19th, the national average pig price was 12.6 yuan/kg. It is expected to be stable with a slight increase on the 20th. In July 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.42 million, and the number of sows culled by large - scale pig farms increased by 2.1% month - on - month. Central reserve frozen pork procurement will be carried out on September 23 [9][12]. - Market Logic: Short - term: Supply exceeds demand, but prices may stop falling after procurement. Medium - term: Pig supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. Long - term: Pig production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [10]. - Trading Strategy: Short positions on pigs are in the profit - taking range. Near - month contracts are based on supply - demand logic, and far - month contracts focus on the expected difference in sow de - stocking. Provide support levels for different contracts [10]. Egg - Important Information: On the 19th, egg prices continued to be weak, inventory levels increased, the price of old hens decreased, and in August, the number of laying hens was about 1.365 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.66% and a year - on - year increase of 5.98% [15]. - Market Logic: Short - to medium - term: Mid - to late - month Mid - Autumn Festival stocking weakens, and prices may fall further if inventory rises. Long - term: Pay attention to the culling amplitude, and the supply pressure may be realized in the fourth quarter [15]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain a short - selling strategy before large - scale concentrated chicken culling. Provide pressure levels for different contracts. Breeding enterprises can also consider selling - hedge opportunities for the 2607 and 2608 contracts [16].