尿素期货日报-20250919

Report Overview - Research Date: September 18, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Urea - Researcher: He Ning (Qualification No.: F0238922; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0001219) [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Quotes - On September 18, 2025, the price of the main urea futures contract fluctuated downward, closing at 1670 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 1681 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1662 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 114,000 lots, an increase of 21,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 287,000 lots, an increase of 6,000 lots from the previous day [2] 1.2 Variety Prices - Domestic major regional urea spot prices generally remained stable, with slight differences in some areas due to demand. Representative factory quotes were: Henan Xinlianxin in Central China at 1680 yuan/ton (basis 10 yuan/ton), Ningxia Petrochemical in Northwest China at 1530 yuan/ton (basis -140 yuan/ton), Ruixing Group in East China at 1630 yuan/ton (basis -40 yuan/ton), and Hualu Hengsheng in North China at 1650 yuan/ton (basis -20 yuan/ton) [6] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Prices and Basis Data - Domestic major regional urea spot prices generally maintained a stable trend, with slight differences in some areas due to demand [6] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News - The Fed announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut as planned, but the policy signals it released were complex, with both hawkish and dovish stances [7][8] 4. Market Outlook - Currently, domestic urea production has rebounded, but agricultural demand is in the off - season, industrial demand is growing slowly, and upstream factories are continuously accumulating inventory. The lowest bid in the latest Indian tender was lower than market expectations. The total inventory of domestic urea enterprises has reached 1165300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32600 tons. Supply is slightly stronger than demand, and enterprise inventory has increased slightly. It is expected that the short - term urea futures market may continue to fluctuate weakly [9][11]