Zi Jin Tian Feng Qi Huo·2025-09-19 12:38Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PVC market in the fourth quarter is expected to first rebound with the macro - situation and then return to fundamentals and delivery logic. For trading strategies, it includes unilateral interval operations, option strategies, and month - spread strategies [3][78]. - The caustic soda market in the fourth quarter is expected to have short - term price stimulation due to alumina stockpiling and then return to seasonal surplus. Trading strategies involve unilateral trading, arbitrage, and option strategies [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market 1. Three - quarter Supply Review - The overall operation of existing PVC plants was stable in the first quarter, and seasonal maintenance in the second and third quarters affected supply. The average operation rate in the first three quarters was about 76.8%, and the output was about 17.948 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.35%. There were many new plant commissions from July to September [3][16]. 2. Three - quarter Demand Review - The apparent demand in the first three quarters was about 15.16 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.4%. Terminal demand was at a seasonal low, and speculative demand was average. Real estate data was weak, and cement demand and prices had been weak since 2024. Exports from January to July were relatively strong, with PVC powder exports of 2.291 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 830,000 tons (56.9%), while floor exports decreased by 11.15% year - on - year [20][32][34]. 3. Three - quarter Inventory Review - In the third quarter, inventory shifted from upstream to mid - stream, and both started to accumulate recently. Due to weak demand and the futures price being higher than the spot price, there was a lot of selling hedging by upstream and futures - cash traders, and inventory shifted to the delivery warehouse. As of September 17, the warehouse receipt volume was 110,900, the highest in history [42][46]. 4. Fourth - quarter Supply Outlook - There will be some maintenance in October, and then maintenance will decrease. There is a possibility of capacity exit in existing plants. Newly commissioned plants have been postponed but will be concentrated recently, and the supply pressure will be reflected in the fourth quarter [52][53][57]. 5. Fourth - quarter Demand Outlook - It is difficult for domestic demand to have incremental demand in the fourth quarter. In terms of exports, attention should be paid to the impact of India's anti - dumping on China. India has strong demand, but the anti - dumping tax rate has been adjusted to $122 - 232 per ton [3][71]. 6. Fourth - quarter Trading Strategies - Strategy 1: Unilateral interval operations. PVC is still in an oversupply situation, but low valuation and falling caustic soda prices provide support. It is expected to trade on macro - improvement factors from September to October and then return to fundamentals. - Strategy 2: Option strategies. Sell out - of - the - money put options on V2601 at relatively low prices and sell out - of - the - money call options on V2601 after the price rebounds. - Strategy 3: Month - spread strategies. Go for positive spreads between January and May contracts and look for positive spread opportunities between May and September contracts [78]. Caustic Soda Market 1. Caustic Soda Spot and Futures Market Review - The spot price of caustic soda has fluctuated due to factors such as maintenance, downstream replenishment, and changes in liquid chlorine prices. The futures market has also shown significant fluctuations, affected by factors like inventory accumulation, market sentiment, and alumina stockpiling [81][83]. 2. Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Review - The output in the first three quarters was about 31.703 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. There were new plant commissions in the third quarter, and some capacity exited. Non - aluminum demand improved in Q3, and paper - making operations were divided. Exports from January to July 2025 were 2.398 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 51.3% [85][95]. 3. Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Outlook - There is a total of 1.05 million tons of capacity to be commissioned, mainly from September to October. The commissioning compliance rate is 50 - 60%. It is expected that the operation rate will recover in late September, decline in October, and remain relatively high from November to December. There is still new demand for alumina commissioning and stockpiling in the fourth quarter, but attention should be paid to the impact of alumina over - supply on demand [98][100][103]. 4. Caustic Soda Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: The near - term is weak, and it is advisable to buy low - priced contracts for the peak season. - Arbitrage: Conduct reverse spreads from non - stockpiling months to stockpiling months, positive spreads from stockpiling months to off - peak months, long caustic soda and short alumina during alumina commissioning and stockpiling, and short caustic soda and long alumina when alumina is in over - supply and production is cut [138].