黄金四季报：GOLD IS THE NEW BOND

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold has broken through and risen after a four - month consolidation, with a year - to - date increase of nearly 40%. Given the expected consecutive interest rate cuts in September, October, and December 2025, and macro - hedging against concerns about the Fed's independence and the US dollar credit system, there is still room for gold prices to rise [3]. - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act", soaring tariff revenues, and the postponement of long - term Treasury bond issuance plans seem to improve the US fiscal outlook. However, due to rigid fiscal spending constraints, a 6% deficit rate has become the "new normal", which fundamentally supports the gold price [3]. - The weakening of the Fed's independence is another important factor driving up the gold price. Political intervention in monetary policy has increased, shaking market confidence in the traditional policy framework [3]. - Although global central bank gold purchases have decreased since the second quarter, central banks, especially those of Russia, Turkey, and China, will continue to diversify their reserve assets by reducing US Treasury holdings and increasing gold, and the "Gold is the new bond" logic persists, and the gold - silver ratio will not fall continuously [3]. - As the Fed returns to the interest - rate cut cycle, the inflow of net long positions in the gold ETF and futures markets will create additional demand [3]. - Stablecoins, as derivatives of the US dollar system, cannot alleviate the huge financing gap of US Treasury bonds and thus cannot shake the upward trend of gold prices in this cycle [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Review - The median projections for real GDP growth, unemployment rate, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, and the federal funds rate from 2025 to the long - run are presented, showing changes compared to the June projections. For example, the projected real GDP growth in 2025 is 1.6% (June projection: 1.4%) [8]. - Powell's remarks at the press conference were neutral with a hawkish tilt. He did not hint at a series of future interest - rate cuts, and the SEP raised GDP projections for the next two years and the inflation rate for next year while lowering the unemployment rate, indicating that risk - management interest - rate cuts are expected to boost the economy [10]. 3.2 Fiscal Track Seemingly Shows Signs of Recovery - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" was signed into law on July 4. It includes tax cuts and spending adjustments. The CBO predicts it will increase the basic deficit by about $3.4 trillion in the next decade, and with additional interest costs, the deficit increase could reach $4.1 trillion. If tariff revenues are lower than expected, the deficit improvement goal will be harder to achieve [15]. - US tariff revenues are rising at an unprecedented slope. In April, the monthly revenue was $17.4 billion, and in August, it soared to $31.4 billion. If the third - quarter momentum continues, the 2026 fiscal - year tariff revenue could approach $380 billion, which may offset most of the costs of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" in an optimistic scenario. The average effective tariff rate faced by US consumers has reached 17.4%, the highest since 1935 [18]. - From April to June, the term premium soared nearly 60 bps due to factors such as the deterioration of the fiscal path. In July, the Treasury Department will keep the auction scale of nominal notes and bonds unchanged in the next few quarters and expand the long - term Treasury bond buyback program, relying more on short - term bonds to finance the deficit [22]. 3.3 Structural Problems of Fiscal Deficit Remain Severe - In the 2024 fiscal year, total fiscal expenditure was $6.8 trillion (23.7% of GDP), with mandatory expenditures accounting for a large proportion. By the 2035 fiscal year, the fiscal deficit is expected to surge to $2.7 trillion, mainly driven by increased social security, medical insurance, and net interest expenditures. Any attempt to cut social welfare or net interest expenditures has significant negative impacts [29]. - As of August 2025, the federal fiscal deficit reached $1.97 trillion, a 4% year - on - year increase. Although tariff revenue increases and the "DOGE plan" can partially offset the deficit pressure, they are insignificant compared to the large debt stock. Federal fiscal revenue has returned to the pre - pandemic long - term equilibrium level, but fiscal expenditure far exceeds it, making a 6% deficit rate the new normal [34]. - According to CRFB's prediction, under Trump's leadership, the federal deficit from 2025 - 2035 is expected to be between 5.6% - 6.5% of GDP, much higher than previous levels. This may lead to an increase in the term premium of US Treasury bonds, a sell - off of bonds, and an increase in the demand for gold as a hedging asset [39]. 3.4 Central Bank Gold - Buying Behavior in 2025 Has Not Weakened - High - quality research infers that China's official gold purchases may be completed through the London LBMA. From January to July 2025, UK customs records showed that China imported over 137 tons of gold, much higher than the official figure of 20.8 tons. The scale of China's central bank gold purchases decreased after April, with a 46% quarter - on - quarter reduction in Q2 compared to Q1 [44]. - The research report of the European Central Bank shows that by the end of 2024, the proportion of gold in official foreign exchange reserves reached 20%, exceeding the euro. Central banks such as those of Russia, Turkey, and China are increasing gold holdings while reducing US dollar assets, especially US Treasury bonds [50]. - Since 2022, the gold - silver ratio has broken through the 50 - 80 range of the past 30 years. After April, the slowdown of central bank gold - buying led to a temporary decline in the gold - silver ratio. However, if central bank gold - buying continues and silver performs unstably during the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the gold - silver ratio is unlikely to fall in the long term [55]. 3.5 Decline in US Government Agency Credibility: A Strong Catalyst for Gold Prices - Although the personnel structure of the Fed's FOMC has not changed substantially, political intervention has increased significantly. If Cook is removed, there is a risk of replacing the 12 regional Fed presidents. Also, if Powell continues to serve as a Fed governor after his term as chairman ends, it may limit the government's influence on the composition of the monetary policy committee [58][61]. - The Fed's independence is crucial for maintaining the credibility of monetary policy. When the market fears political intervention in monetary policy, investors tend to buy gold as a hedge, driving up the gold price [61]. 3.6 Fed Interest - Rate Cuts: Another Driver of Gold Price Increase - Since April, new non - farm payrolls have declined, and the ratio of job vacancies to the unemployed has reached a new low since the pandemic. In August, core CPI showed resilience, but there was no widespread and continuous price pressure. As a result, the Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 bps on September 18 [66]. - In the four weeks leading up to September 17, global gold ETF holdings increased by 74 tons, and COMEX gold futures non - commercial net long positions increased by about 49,000 contracts. With the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle starting, the decline in yields will drive up gold demand [67]. 3.7 Stablecoins Are Essentially an Extension of the US Dollar System - The "GENIUS Act" aims to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring issuers to hold high - liquidity reserve assets. The total market value of USDT and USDC, which account for over 90% of the stablecoin market, is about $250 billion, while the public's US Treasury bond holdings exceed $29 trillion. Currently, stablecoins are not significant enough to impact the US Treasury bond market [78]. - Stablecoins can only absorb part of short - term US Treasury bonds and cannot fill the trillion - level fiscal financing gap. For example, Tether (USDT)'s reserve assets are mainly short - term Treasury bonds, but its overall scale is limited compared to the US Treasury bond market [79].