铁合金周报：节前补库-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for silicon manganese and silicon iron are generally neutral, with some specific aspects having a "bullish" or "bearish" tendency. For example, the "Steel & Metal Magnesium Production" aspect of silicon iron is rated as bullish, while the "Inventory" aspect is rated as bearish [3][4] 2. Report's Core Views Silicon Manganese - The market is currently characterized by a slight decline in weekly production, with steel mills resuming production and molten iron output basically recovering. The combined quantity of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts for manganese silicon is decreasing, and the proportion of hidden inventory is increasing. On the cost side, there is an obvious upward trend in the spot price of manganese ore at northern ports, while the price of chemical coke has decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The overall market sentiment is neutral [3] Silicon Iron - The market sentiment is average, with the market referring to HBIS's tender price. The production of silicon iron is relatively stable. On the demand side, blast furnaces of northern steel mills are gradually resuming production, molten iron output is rising, and the output of metal magnesium is continuing to increase slightly. It is expected that the demand for silicon iron will increase in the future. Currently, the immediate-profit situation in the main production areas is poor, and the price of semi-coke has risen slightly [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese Manganese Ore - The total port inventory of manganese ore is 4.525 million tons, showing a slight increase compared to the previous period. Among them, the inventory at Tianjin Port has increased slightly to 3.803 million tons, still lower than the same period last year, while the inventory at Qinzhou Port has decreased slightly to 717,000 tons, approaching the level of the same period last year [12] - The inventory of South African ore at Tianjin Port is 2.698 million tons, showing a slight increase. The inventory of Gabon ore is 293,000 tons, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous period and far lower than the same period last year. The inventory of Australian ore is 362,000 tons, showing a slight increase and approaching the level of the same period last year [15] - The price of Gabon lumps at Tianjin Port is 40 yuan/ton-degree, Australian lumps are 40.2 yuan/ton-degree, and South African semi-carbonate is 34.3 yuan/ton-degree, showing a slight increase. The actual transaction price of manganese ore is slightly lower than the quoted price [17] Supply - As of September 19, the weekly output of silicon manganese has increased to 208,800 tons. The daily average output in Inner Mongolia has decreased to 14,440 tons/day, in Ningxia has decreased significantly to 6,530 tons/day, in Yunnan has increased slightly to 2,700 tons/day, in Guizhou has increased slightly to 1,900 tons/day, and in Guangxi is 1,345 tons/day [30] Demand - As of September 19, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises is 121,400 tons, and the weekly output of the five major steel products has decreased to 855,460 tons. The proportion of rebar output in the total output of the five major steel products has decreased [40] Price - The market price in Inner Mongolia is around 5,730 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin it is 5,820 yuan/ton. HBIS's tender price is 6,000 yuan/ton [48] Cost and Profit - As of September 19, the price of chemical coke has decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The ex-factory prices of 25 - 40mm chemical coke in Yinchuan, Ordos, and Alxa are 1,140 yuan/ton, 1,060 yuan/ton, and 1,090 yuan/ton respectively. The second round of price cuts for coke has been implemented [51] - The immediate profit of silicon manganese is low, but the loss situation has improved. The market is fluctuating upwards, the price of manganese ore is firm, and the price of chemical coke has decreased slightly [53] Month Spread - As of September 18, the 1 - 5 month spread of silicon manganese is -44 yuan/ton, showing a low-level fluctuation [56] Basis and Inventory - The market is fluctuating upwards, the spot price has increased slightly, and the basis has weakened slightly. As of September 18, the combined quantity of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts for silicon manganese is 319,950 tons, showing a slight increase compared to the previous period but still maintaining a downward trend. Attention should be paid to the recovery situation after the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in October [59] Silicon Iron Supply - As of September 12, the weekly output is 113,100 tons. The daily average output in Inner Mongolia is 5,190 tons, in Qinghai is 2,360 tons, in Ningxia is 3,920 tons, and in Shaanxi is 2,580 tons [73] Demand - The demand for silicon iron from steel mills has decreased, but the total consumption of silicon iron by Mysteel sample steel mills is still significantly higher than the same period last year. Blast furnaces of northern steel mills are gradually resuming production, molten iron output is rising significantly, and it is expected that the demand for silicon iron will increase in the future [77] - As of September 19, the export price of metal magnesium at Tianjin Port is 2,435 US dollars/ton, and the market price has decreased slightly to 16,750 yuan/ton, remaining relatively stable overall. The weekly output of metal magnesium is 17,241 tons, showing a slight increase compared to the previous period. The supply side of magnesium ingots has raised the quoted price, but the actual market follow - up and trading volume are insufficient, and most buyers are cautiously waiting and watching. Real - order purchases are scarce, and low - price sources are also hard to find, resulting in a stalemate in supply - demand trading [86] Price - As of September 19, the overseas FOB price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 1,105 US dollars/ton, and that of 72 - grade silicon iron is 1,025 US dollars/ton, showing a slight increase compared to the previous period. In July, the import volume of silicon iron decreased significantly compared to the previous period, while the export volume increased slightly and is higher than the same period last year [90] Cost and Profit - As of September 19, the prices of small - sized semi - coke in the main production areas have increased slightly. The current prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia are 660 yuan/ton, 695 yuan/ton, and 650 yuan/ton respectively. The price of oxidized iron scale remains at 830 yuan/ton [97] - As of September 18, the point - to - point profit loss of silicon iron has narrowed slightly. The loss in Shaanxi is relatively large, while that in Inner Mongolia is relatively small. The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai are -209 yuan/ton, -262 yuan/ton, -274 yuan/ton, and -213 yuan/ton respectively [106] Month Spread - As of September 18, the 11 - 1 month spread of silicon iron is 12 yuan/ton, showing a slight weakening compared to the previous period and lower than the same period last year [108] Basis and Inventory - The market is fluctuating upwards, the basis of silicon iron has weakened slightly, and as of September 18, the basis is -394 yuan/ton. As of September 18, the combined quantity of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts for silicon iron is 94,780 tons, showing a significant increase compared to the previous period [111] Balance Sheet - The balance sheets for silicon manganese and silicon iron from January to December 2025 show the supply, demand, production, import, export, and surplus/deficit situations for each month, as well as the year - on - year cumulative changes in production and consumption [113][114]