双焦四季报：供应总不缺故事

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In Q4, domestic coking coal supply is unlikely to return to the high levels of H1, and the annual import volume is expected to be lower than in 2024. The coal price may first decline and then rise. Coke production is expected to increase slightly, and it will continue to follow the fluctuations of raw coal [3][4]. - In 2025, the price of coking coal and coke first declined and then increased. The market was affected by policies such as anti - involution and over - production inspection [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Trends - From January to May 2025, coal prices fell smoothly until some mines suffered losses. In June, the market bottomed out and rebounded, and from July to August, it strengthened rapidly under policy influence and then oscillated at a high level [7]. - In H2, coal prices rebounded significantly following the futures market. Shanxi Anze low - sulfur main coking coal and Jinzhong medium - sulfur main coking coal prices increased compared to the June lows [14]. - Mongolian coal prices followed the futures market closely. The Q3 Mongolian coal long - term agreement price decreased, and it is expected to increase slightly in Q4. The prices of imported seaborne coal such as Australian and Russian coal increased in Q3 [19]. 2. Coking Coal Supply - Domestic Production: From January to July 2025, the raw coal output was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The coking coal output was 29 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.7%, but the growth rate declined monthly. It is estimated that the annual coking coal output will be 478 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5 million tons [3]. - Import: From January to July 2025, China imported 62.45 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. It is estimated that the annual coking coal import volume will be 106 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16 million tons [3]. 3. Coking Coal Demand - It is estimated that the annual domestic consumption of coking coal will be 595 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% [3]. 4. Coking Coal Inventory - As of early September, the total coking coal inventory was 25.6 million tons, a decrease of 5.37 million tons compared to the beginning of the year. The upstream inventory has been reduced to a relatively low level, and the downstream replenishment intention is average [3]. 5. Coke Supply - From January to August 2025, the national coke output was 334.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. It is estimated that the annual coke output will increase by about 1 - 2% to reach about 495 million tons [4]. 6. Coke Demand - From January to August 2025, the average daily pig iron output was 2.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. It is estimated that the annual pig iron output will increase by 2.6%, and the annual coke demand will be 399 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% [4]. - From January to July 2025, China's cumulative export of coke and semi - coke was 4.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22%. It is expected that the monthly coke export will remain at about 600,000 tons [4]. 7. Coke Inventory - As of mid - September, the total coke inventory was 9.06 million tons, with a slight decrease compared to the beginning of the year. The current inventory structure is relatively healthy, but the downstream replenishment intention is weak. If the coking operation remains at a high level, there is a high probability of inventory accumulation in Q4 [4].