Haitong Securities International·2025-09-19 12:41Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Baidu (BIDU US) with a target price of US$188.00, reflecting a significant upside from the current price of US$135.25 [1][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential value release from "hidden" assets due to the new CFO's strategy, shifting the valuation method from P/E to Sum-of-the-Parts (SoTP) [1][2]. - Baidu is undergoing a transformation in its traditional business model, focusing on enhancing its AI SaaS products, cost-effective cloud infrastructure, and building an open foundational model ecosystem [1][2]. - The demand for large language models (LLMs) is expected to further unlock the value of Baidu's Kunlun chip, with significant orders already secured [1][2]. - The report outlines three scenarios for valuation: pessimistic, baseline, and optimistic, reflecting varying degrees of success in AI commercialization and market share growth [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a slight decline from RMB 134,598 million in Dec-23A to RMB 131,136 million in Dec-25E, with a net profit decrease from RMB 28,746 million to RMB 21,030 million in the same period [1]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) is expected to decrease from 51.7% in Dec-23A to 42.6% in Dec-25E, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 11.5% to 7.3% [1]. - The report provides a detailed breakdown of the valuation for different segments, estimating the total market value at US$64 billion, leading to the target price of US$188 per ADR [2]. Business Segments Analysis - Traditional search advertising is valued at US$10.2 billion, while AI cloud services are estimated at US$5.4 billion, and AI SaaS at US$2 billion [2]. - The "Luo Bo Kua" autonomous taxi service is projected to achieve a 60% market share by 2030, with a normalized operating profit margin of 15% [2]. - The Kunlun chip is expected to capture a 5.4% market share in the AI computing GPU data center market by 2029, with a normalized operating profit margin of 15% [2]. AI and Cloud Services - Baidu's AI cloud services are experiencing significant growth, with a 34% year-on-year increase in revenue, reaching RMB 131 billion in the first half of 2025 [32]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI SaaS in driving revenue and profit, with Baidu's document and cloud services expected to contribute significantly to overall income [19][20]. - The AI cloud infrastructure is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI solutions across various industries, including gaming, e-commerce, and finance [28][32].