化工日报-20250919

Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (judged as a relatively clear downward trend) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (judged as a relatively clear upward trend) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (judged as a relatively clear downward trend) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (judged as a relatively clear downward trend) [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ (judged as a relatively clear downward trend) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ (judged as a downward trend, but with limited operability on the market) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (judged as a relatively clear downward trend) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ (judged as a downward trend, but with limited operability on the market) [1] - PX: ★★☆ (judged as a relatively clear downward trend, and the market is fermenting) [1] - PTA: ★★☆ (judged as a relatively clear downward trend, and the market is fermenting) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ (judged as a relatively clear downward trend) [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ (judged as a relatively clear upward trend) [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ (judged as a downward trend, but with limited operability on the market) [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (judged as a downward trend, but with limited operability on the market) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ (judged as a downward trend, but with limited operability on the market) [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ (judged as a downward trend, but with limited operability on the market) [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend, with different products having different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][3][5] - Some products are affected by factors such as new device expectations, overseas device changes, and seasonal demand changes [5][6] - The market sentiment is also influenced by macro - economic data and external factors [5] Summary by Category Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures contracts continued to decline. Although the cost pressure on downstream products has not been fully alleviated, the demand for propylene has improved, and some companies are more willing to hold prices [2] - Polyolefin futures contracts declined slightly. The demand for polyethylene has increased, and the supply has decreased. The supply - demand situation of polypropylene has limited improvement [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene continued to be weak, with a decline in spot prices in East China and a significant reduction in trading volume in Shandong. The supply - demand situation may improve in the third quarter, but high import volume expectations suppress the market [3] - Styrene futures contracts declined. The supply has decreased unexpectedly, but the demand is in a dull period, and there may be price promotions in the north before the National Day [3] Polyester - PTA is under price pressure, and the market is weak in the short term. There is an expectation of downstream restocking before the festival, and the processing margin of polyester yarn may be repaired [5] - Ethylene glycol has returned to the bottom of the range. The supply pressure is not large in reality, but the expectation is weak [5] - Short fiber prices have declined. The industry is expected to be boosted by the peak - season demand, and the near - month contracts can be configured more [5] - Bottle chip production has slightly decreased, and the processing margin has been slightly repaired, but the long - term pressure of over - capacity exists [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures contracts have shown a strong shock. The short - term supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, and the long - term focus is on the actual implementation of overseas gas restrictions [6] - Urea futures contracts have continued to decline. The domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is in a state of loose supply - demand, with low - level fluctuations [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC continues to have a loose supply - demand pattern, with high inventory pressure, and may show a weak shock trend [7] - The performance of caustic soda varies by region. The market may be in a shock pattern [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash has accumulated inventory again. The long - term supply is in an over - supply pattern, and it is expected to fluctuate with the macro - sentiment in the short term [8] - Glass has a pattern of high supply and weak demand. The inventory has declined, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [8]