Group 1: Report Core View - The global oil and fat market shows complex supply - demand dynamics in the 25/26 period. Despite an increase in global oil and fat production, the recovery of export and biodiesel demand since the second half of this year, along with palm oil supply issues, supports price increases. The supply of Malaysia and Indonesia is differentiated, with Malaysia's production possibly peaking in August while Indonesia's production recovers and inventory builds up. Global new - crop sunflower oil prices are not as weak as expected due to harvest delays and slow pressing growth. South American soybean oil has passed its export peak and has poor pressing profits. The rapeseed oil market is affected by policies, especially China - Canada relations. The trend - down of oil and fat prices may occur only if the palm oil production - reduction season in Malaysia and Indonesia is not obvious and the global biodiesel development slows down [195]. Group 2: Global Oilseeds and Oils Overview Production - Rapeseed production has been continuously adjusted upwards, while sunflower seed production has been continuously adjusted downwards. In the 25/26 period, the production of some oilseeds is expected to change, with rapeseed showing an upward trend and sunflower seed a downward one [8]. - The production of rapeseed oil and palm oil has been continuously adjusted upwards, while sunflower oil production has been continuously adjusted downwards [29]. Export - Rapeseed export has been continuously adjusted upwards, sunflower seed export has been adjusted downwards multiple times, and soybean export has been recently adjusted upwards [15]. - The export of rapeseed oil, sunflower oil, and soybean oil has been continuously adjusted downwards, while palm oil export has been continuously adjusted upwards [35]. Pressing - Rapeseed pressing has been continuously adjusted upwards, while soybean and sunflower seed pressing have been continuously adjusted downwards [21]. Inventory - Soybean and sunflower seed inventories are decreasing, while rapeseed inventory is increasing [23]. - The global oil and fat inventory - to - consumption ratio is slightly decreasing in the 25/26 period [38]. Group 3: Palm Oil Malaysia - Rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia has been relatively good this year. From May, Malaysia's palm oil production has been below the average level for four consecutive months. In August, the production decreased by 2.05% year - on - year. The export in August increased by 1.19% month - on - month to 1.32 million tons, and the cumulative export from January to August decreased by 10.80% year - on - year. The apparent consumption in August reached 490,000 tons, a record high. The inventory increased to 2.2 million tons. In September, there is a high possibility of production reduction, and the inventory build - up at the end of September may be limited [42][45][48][52]. Indonesia - In June, Indonesia's palm oil production increased by 15.99% month - on - month to 5.289 million tons, and the cumulative production from January to June was 27.89 million tons, 1.71 million tons more than the same period in 2024. The export in June increased by 35.56% month - on - month to 3.606 million tons. From July, production recovered again, and inventory began to build up. In August, production continued to recover, especially in the second half of August. Usually, the average production increase in September is the largest, but in 2025, due to precipitation and other factors, the actual increase may not reach the historical average of 5.43%. The inventory will continue to build up at the end of September, but the recovery will not be fast [60][68]. Group 4: Rapeseed EU - In August, the EU raised rapeseed production by 300,000 tons to 18.84 million tons, with the planting area remaining at 5.81 million hectares and the yield per hectare increasing to 3.24 tons, a 2.15 - million - ton increase compared to the previous crop [75]. Canada - In August, Canada officially raised the 24/25 rapeseed production from 19.19 million tons to 20.1 million tons, with the planting area remaining at 8.68 million hectares and the yield per hectare increasing from 2.08 tons to 2.35 tons. Exports were raised from 6 million tons to 7 million tons, domestic consumption from 11.5 million tons to 12.18 million tons, and the ending inventory was 2.2 million tons, slightly higher than the previous crop's 1.18 million tons [77]. Australia - Australia's 25/26 rapeseed production is 5.71 million tons, lower than the previous crop's 6.1 million tons, with both the planting area and yield per hectare decreasing. The harvest area is 3.379 million hectares, and the yield per hectare is 1.7 tons. Exports are 4.14 million tons, slightly higher than the previous crop's 4.1 million tons. The rapeseed is currently in the growing season and will enter the harvesting period in October [83]. Russia and Ukraine - Russia's 2025 total rapeseed production is expected to reach 5 million tons, higher than last year's 4.66 million tons. Ukraine's rapeseed production is estimated to be 3.5 million tons due to a decrease in the planting area and unfavorable weather during the growing season [87]. Group 5: Soybean Oil Brazil - In August, Brazil's soybean oil export was 160,000 tons, higher than July's 138,000 tons but lower than June's 167,000 tons. The cumulative export from January to August was 1.11 million tons, higher than the same period in 2024 [89]. Argentina - In August, Argentina's soybean oil export was 545,000 tons, lower than July's 569,000 tons. The cumulative export from January to July was 4.14 million tons, higher than the same period in 2024. The export growth rate of both Brazil and Argentina's soybean oil is slowing down [92]. USA - In July, the US exported 28,500 tons of soybean oil. The inventory and consumption data also show certain trends, but specific details are presented in the relevant charts [101]. Group 6: India - As of September 16, the price differences between different oils in India have changed. The import, inventory, and consumption of various oils also show different trends. For example, the import of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil has specific data changes over time, and the consumption of these oils also varies monthly [111][115][126]. Group 7: Biodiesel Indonesia - In the first half of 2025, Indonesia distributed 7.96 billion liters of biodiesel, completing 51% of the 2025 target of 15.6 billion liters, which supports the demand for palm oil [132]. EU - The EU's RME processing profit is average, and the import and export of biodiesel are decreasing. The import of UCO from China is at a high level, and the import of raw materials from Malaysia and Indonesia also shows certain trends [133][135][137]. USA - In June, the proportion of soybean oil in biodiesel feedstock reached 36%, rising for several consecutive months. The proportion of animal fat and waste oils remained high, and the proportion of Canadian rapeseed oil decreased to 8%. The import of various raw materials also shows specific data changes [144][146]. Brazil - On June 25, Brazil officially approved increasing the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% (B15) starting from August 1, and plans to reach 16% (B16) in March 2026 and 17% (B17) in March 2027, with a final target of 25% (B25) [162]. Group 8: Domestic Market Supply - The domestic soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes, as well as the import volumes of soybeans, rapeseed, and palm oil, show specific data changes over time. The spot price differences between different oils are affected by factors such as taxes and import volumes [167][169][171][182]. Inventory - The inventory of domestic edible palm oil, sunflower oil, and other oils, as well as the total inventory of the four major oils, show certain trends over time [184]. Transaction - The downstream purchases more soybean oil, especially the forward basis. The spot transaction of palm oil remains at a low level, and the domestic rapeseed oil transaction slows down after the sellable quantity of oil mills decreases [191]. Balance Sheet - The monthly balance sheet of domestic oils shows the changes in inventory, production, import, demand, and other aspects over time [194].
油脂四季报：热度下降油脂何去何从
Zi Jin Tian Feng Qi Huo·2025-09-19 12:48