国投期货软商品日报-20250919

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (indicating a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★☆ (indicating a clear upward/downward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (indicating a bias towards a certain trend but low operability on the market) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (indicating a short - term balanced state and low operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ★★☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, providing a comprehensive assessment of supply, demand, price trends, and offering corresponding investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to decline, and spot sales were poor. Xinjiang cotton production is likely to be bumper, possibly exceeding 700 million tons. The expected large pre - sale volume of new cotton may lead to competition among ginners, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The expected opening price of machine - picked cotton is 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The cotton yarn market has general trading, and downstream demand is still not ideal. It is suggested to wait and see and pay attention to new cotton acquisition, demand performance, and Sino - US trade negotiations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to decline. Brazil's sugar production is down year - on - year in the short term, and the supply pressure is lower than last year. The sugar - alcohol ratio remains high, and Brazil's sugar - making ratio may still be high next year. US sugar faces pressure. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar is weak. This year's sales are fast, inventory is down year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market focuses on imports and next season's output forecast. This year's syrup imports have decreased significantly, but the 25/26 season's output is uncertain due to weather [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuates. The demand for early - maturing apples is good, and the spot market has high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing apples. The expected output change in the 25/26 quarter is small, and there is no bullish driver on the supply side. The expected cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected, so it is recommended to maintain a bearish view [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated. The futures market is cautious. The price of domestic natural rubber decreased, and synthetic rubber was stable with a slight increase. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate dropped significantly. The tire operating rate increased slightly, and the finished - product inventory increased. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased, and the butadiene inventory also declined. It is recommended to wait and see due to the approaching National Day holiday [6] Pulp - Pulp futures fluctuated narrowly. The spot prices of coniferous and broad - leaved pulp were stable. As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China decreased slightly, but the year - on - year inventory was still high. The digestion of warehouse receipts was slow. China's pulp imports in August decreased month - on - month. The domestic inflation is expected to be weak, and the PPI improved marginally. The pulp supply is relatively loose, and demand is general. It is recommended to wait and see or trade within a range [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated, and the spot price was stable. The arrival volume last week decreased significantly. The New Zealand radiata pine price decreased in September, and domestic traders' import willingness declined. The domestic supply is expected to remain low. The demand is entering the peak season, but the shipment volume has not increased significantly. The inventory is low, and the pressure is small. However, the peak - season demand has not started, so it is recommended to wait and see [8]