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策略日报:加速轮动-20250919
Tai Ping Yang Zheng Quan·2025-09-19 14:45

Group 1: Macro Asset Tracking - The bond market experienced a day of volatility with long-term bonds declining more than short-term ones, indicating a bearish trend for bonds while the A-share market remains bullish [1][16] - The A-share market showed a slight decline with a trading volume of 2.35 trillion, suggesting a potential short-term adjustment phase despite the overall bullish trend [2][20] - The current equity risk premium (ERP) for the A-share market is at 4.02%, significantly lower than historical lows, indicating potential for further declines in the ERP [2][20] Group 2: A-Share Market Insights - The A-share market's total market value to GDP ratio stands at 0.75, indicating a significant distance from historical peaks, suggesting room for growth [2][20] - The ratio of household deposits to A-share market value is currently at 1.7, indicating that the process of capital moving into the stock market may still be ongoing [2][20] - Technical indicators suggest that the A-share market still has upward potential, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [2][20] Group 3: US Market Overview - The US stock market indices reached new highs, with the Nasdaq up 0.94%, indicating a continuation of bullish sentiment [3][23] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points and stable economic growth provide a supportive backdrop for risk assets [3][23] - The labor market shows signs of slowing, but the overall economic fundamentals remain strong, supporting further upward movement in the market [3][23] Group 4: Currency Market Analysis - The onshore RMB against the USD reported at 7.1123, showing an increase, while the dollar weakened due to disappointing non-farm payroll data [4][30] - The technical outlook for the offshore RMB is bullish, suggesting a potential strategy of going long on RMB assets rather than shorting the dollar [4][30] Group 5: Commodity Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell by 0.12%, with coal and new energy sectors leading gains, while polyester and oil sectors lagged [6][34] - The commodity market is advised to maintain a bullish outlook, focusing on long positions while managing risks [6][34]