金信期货观点-20250919

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market of petrochemical products is complex, with supply and demand factors influencing prices. Crude oil prices are in a weak consolidation phase, and the prices of downstream products such as PX, PTA, MEG, and benzene series face different supply - demand situations and price trends [4][5]. - The petrochemical market is still in the recovery stage, but downstream demand has not shown significant improvement, and the market trading atmosphere is sluggish [25]. 3. Summary by Variety BZ&EB - Pure benzene has high supply pressure due to new capacity coming online from August - September, and downstream demand support is weak. Although port inventories are decreasing, they remain at a high level. Benzene - to - styrene (BZN) weakened and then stabilized. Styrene's planned maintenance was carried out, with an operating rate of 73.44% (down 1.54% from last week). New capacity will be gradually released from September - October, and supply is expected to increase. The downstream 3S operating rate changed little, and the price rebound space is limited [4]. - This week, the pure benzene operating rate was 78.35% (down 0.94% from last week), and the styrene operating rate was 73.44% (down 1.54% from last week). BZN dropped to around $120/ton. The 3S operating rate recovery was okay, but the ABS inventory pressure was large. Pure benzene and styrene port inventories started to decline, but the overall industrial chain inventory was high, and terminal recovery was slow [33]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ started the second - stage production increase in October, with an increase of 137,000 barrels per day compared to September. Geopolitical risks did not further intensify, and the impact of sanctions on supply and trade flow was limited. The EU will ban the import of refined products from Russian crude oil starting in early 2026. The seasonal inflection point on the demand side has appeared, and crude oil prices are in a weak consolidation phase [5]. PX&PTA - PX's short - term operating rate is relatively strong, but the cost support from the declining crude oil price center has weakened significantly. Although downstream load has increased, PXN is expected to operate weakly. Recently, there have been many changes in PTA devices. Two 2.5 - million - ton devices restarted last week, and a 4.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China will restart, increasing short - term supply. PTA processing fees are at a historical low of 139 yuan/ton. PTA factory inventories continue to accumulate, and the supply - demand pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term, limiting the price rebound space [5]. - The weekly average domestic PX capacity utilization rate was 85.51% (up 0.88% from last week), and the Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 75.2% (up 0.59%). The PX - naphtha spread remained at around $235/ton. Some PX devices had maintenance and restart operations. Although it is the downstream polyester peak season, new orders and load did not exceed expectations. PX will enter the end of the expansion cycle in 2024, and attention should be paid to the commissioning time of a 3 - million - ton new capacity in the fourth quarter [9]. - This week, the PTA spot market price was 4,617 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton from last week), and the mainstream spot basis weakened to - 79 yuan/ton. The PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate was 77.29% (up 2.34% month - on - month). The 4.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China will restart, increasing short - term supply. The new PTA device maintenance plan from October - November has limited impact on the current market. After the new device is put into operation in October, PTA will enter the inventory accumulation cycle again, and supply pressure still exists. PTA processing fees are at a historical low, and the market's expectation for peak - season demand has significantly weakened [12]. MEG - This week, the MEG operating rate continued to rise, and port inventories increased slightly, but it is difficult to sustain within the month. There is a risk of supply - demand gap under low inventory in the short term. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in the far - month, suppressing the valuation of the 2601 contract. Currently, the supply - demand is tight under low inventory, downstream polyester load has slightly increased, and the traditional peak - season demand has slightly improved. The market is still in the recovery stage, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [5]. - This week, the MEG market price was 4,352 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan/ton month - on - month). The domestic MEG total capacity utilization rate was 67.04% (up 0.49% from last week), and the coal - based MEG capacity utilization rate was 67.52% (up 1.56% from last week). The gross profit was - 162.28/ton (down 103.63/ton month - on - month). Port inventories increased to 383,700 tons (up 20,500 tons from last week), still at a historical low level. Due to pre - holiday stocking, polyester factories still have demand for low - price replenishment. The supply - demand structure of MEG from September - October has improved compared to expectations, and the transferable spot is continuously tightening [19]. Polyester - This week, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry was 87.9%, remaining flat from last week. The short - fiber and long - filament operating rates slightly increased. The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 62.19% (down 0.23% from last week). The average number of terminal weaving order days was 14.42 days (down 0.13 days from last week), and factory inventories slightly increased. The overall terminal weaving market has weak driving forces, downstream demand has not improved significantly, the market trading atmosphere is sluggish, seasonal orders are average, and there are few large - order news. The market is still in the recovery stage [25].