日度策略参考-20250919

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Industries - Bullish: Crude oil, Fuel oil, Coke [1] - Bearish: None - Neutral (Oscillating): Most other industries including Index, Treasury bonds, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium carbonate, Rebar, Hot-rolled coil, Iron ore, Non-ferrous metals, Soda ash, Coking coal, Palm oil, Soybean oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean meal, Pulp, Logs, Live pigs, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Pure benzene and styrene, Urea, PP, PVC, STE HOX, LPG, Container shipping on the European route [1] 2. Core Views - Macro-financial: The long-term view for stock index futures is bullish, but the probability of a unilateral upward trend in the market before the National Day holiday is low, and investors are advised to control their positions; the asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short-term warning on interest rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - Non-ferrous metals: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the non-ferrous sector has oscillated and corrected. Each metal has different supply and demand fundamentals, resulting in varying price trends, with most having limited downward or upward space [1] - Agricultural products: Different agricultural products have different supply and demand situations, such as palm oil having a chance to break through the oscillation range and rise, soybean oil having a long-term bullish outlook, and sugar and corn prices oscillating [1] - Energy and chemicals: The supply and demand of energy and chemical products are complex. Crude oil and fuel oil are bullish due to factors such as inventory decline and production increase plans, while most other products oscillate due to various supply and demand and cost factors [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro-financial - Stock index futures: Long-term bullish, low probability of unilateral rise before National Day, control positions [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but central bank's interest rate risk warning suppresses upward space [1] Non-ferrous metals - Gold: After the Fed's interest rate cut, it is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with limited adjustment intensity [1] - Silver: After the Fed's interest rate cut, some long positions left the market, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [1] - Copper: After the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices are under pressure, but with the start of the easing cycle and improving downstream demand, the callback space is limited [1] - Aluminum: After the Fed's interest rate cut, aluminum prices are under pressure, but with the arrival of the consumption peak season, the downward space is limited [1] - Alumina: Production and inventory are increasing, the spot price is under pressure, but it is approaching the cost line, so the downward space is limited [1] - Zinc: Social inventory is increasing, and zinc prices are oscillating and weakening in the short term [1] - Nickel: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the non-ferrous sector oscillated and corrected. Nickel prices are oscillating in a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply and macro changes [1] - Stainless steel: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the non-ferrous sector oscillated and corrected. Stainless steel futures are oscillating in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual production of steel mills [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: Affected by floods in Malaysia's Sabah state, the supply is disrupted, and the price is expected to break through the oscillation range and rise [1] - Soybean oil: The de-stocking expectation in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is bullish in the long term. Short-term attention should be paid to the impact of Sino-US negotiations [1] - Rapeseed oil: Canada may adjust imports, and a positive spread strategy for rapeseed oil 11=1 is recommended [1] - Cotton: The new cotton harvest is expected to be abundant, and the short-term supply may be tight. The acquisition game during the new cotton acquisition period will be the focus [1] - Sugar: New sugar is on the market, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly with limited downward space in the short term [1] - Corn: The new season's corn has not been fully listed, and the price is oscillating at a low level in the short term. C01 is expected to remain weak later [1] - Soybean meal: Affected by Sino-US negotiations and pig anti-involution policies, the price is under pressure. It is oscillating in a range, and attention should be paid to Sino-US policies and Brazilian planting weather [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Bullish due to factors such as US inventory decline, OPEC+ production increase plan, and Fed's interest rate cut [1] - Fuel oil: Bullish for the same reasons as crude oil [1] - Asphalt: Short-term supply and demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five-Year Plan" construction demand may be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - BR rubber: The supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and the downstream trading is weakening. The price is oscillating, and attention should be paid to inventory de-stocking and device maintenance [1] - PTA: Domestic production is increasing, the basis is declining rapidly, and the polyester operating rate has recovered [1] - Ethylene glycol: The basis is strengthening, but the upcoming production of Yulong Petrochemical's device and the increase in hedging positions after the price rise bring pressure [1] - Short fiber: Factory devices are gradually returning, and the delivery willingness of market warehouse receipts has weakened with the price decline [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: Supply is increasing after maintenance, and domestic import pressure is increasing [1] - Urea: Export sentiment has eased, and there is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti-involution and cost [1] - PP: Oscillating weakly due to factors such as limited maintenance support, rigid demand for orders, and return to fundamentals [1] - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and there are many near-month warehouse receipts, so the price is oscillating weakly [1] - LPG: Crude oil production increase and bearish fundamentals suppress the upward momentum, but there are factors such as international demand and domestic device profit changes [1] Others - Container shipping on the European route: In September, the supply exceeded the same period, and the freight rate is expected to decline [1]