苹果期货一周简评

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [3][18] 2) Core Viewpoints - The market is in a complex situation of dual - festival stocking and the alternation of new and old seasons. The delay in the listing of new - season late - Fuji apples and the differentiation of inventory quality are the main market contradictions. The scarcity of high - quality goods supports the bottom price of the spot, but weak trading restricts the upward space. The futures market maintains a volatile pattern under the influence of multiple and short factors. It is recommended to hold long positions in AP2601 [3]. - As the weather turns cooler, the supply of seasonal fruits decreases, and the demand for Mid - Autumn and National Day gift boxes boosts the apple consumption market. The purchasing enthusiasm of merchants increases, and the sales speed accelerates. The acquisition price of late - maturing Fuji may benefit from the high opening price of early - and mid - maturing apples and festival consumption expectations. It is necessary to focus on the climate impact on the high - quality fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji and the opening price dynamics from late September to early October. It is recommended to hold long positions in AP2601 [18]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Production Areas - Shandong: The price of inventory paper - bagged late - Fuji apples (80 and above, slice - red, first - and second - grade) is 3.00 - 4.00 yuan/jin; the price of paper - bagged late - Fuji apples (80 and above, slice - red, general goods) is 2.50 - 3.00 yuan/jin; the price of inventory striped late - Fuji apples (80 and above, first - and second - grade) is 3.50 - 4.50 yuan/jin. The price of cream generals (75 and above) is 1.50 - 1.80 yuan/jin, and the e - commerce procurement enthusiasm is fair [6]. - Shaanxi: The price of paper - bagged early - Fuji apples (70 and above, semi - commercial) is 4.50 - 4.85 yuan/jin, and the price of general goods is 3.50 - 3.60 yuan/jin [6]. Apple Inventory As of September 12, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of the country was 20.91 tons, a decrease of 6.44 tons compared with the previous week, and the sales speed slowed down compared with the previous week. As of September 17, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased by 4.59 tons to 16.32 tons week - on - week, reflecting the digestion effect of holiday demand on inventory [3][8]. Downstream Sales Areas In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of trucks arriving in the morning has decreased week - on - week, with an average of about 51 trucks per week. The number of arriving trucks has increased slightly compared with the previous off - season. The market is still dominated by Fuji apples, with an increase in early - maturing Gala apples. The sales of early - maturing apples are fair, but the profits of merchants are average. The terminal sales speed is not fast, the digestion speed of high - quality goods is fair, and the digestion of poor - quality goods is slow. Seasonal fruits impact the apple market sales, the number of arriving trucks in the market is still at a low level, the terminal digestion has slowed down slightly, and second - and third - level wholesalers maintain on - demand purchases [11]. Other Fruit Prices As of the 23rd week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 8.04 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 yuan/kg. Among them, the average wholesale prices of Kyoho grapes, Fuji apples, Ya pears, and pineapples increased by 1.51 yuan/kg, 0.29 yuan/kg, 0.03 yuan/kg, and 0.05 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 22nd week. The average wholesale prices of bananas and watermelons decreased by 0.03 yuan/kg and 0.34 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 22nd week [14].