Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton Futures Weekly Review - Date: September 20, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Zijian - Contact: 17803978037 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03087965 - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0019551 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Internationally, the Fed's 25bp rate cut met market expectations. The 2025/26 global cotton market will have a 250,000 - ton supply - demand gap. The supply in the international cotton market is tightening, driving cotton prices to remain strong [4]. - Domestically, the domestic cotton market is in the critical period of new cotton harvesting, with the price center moving down. New cotton listing pressure is digesting the support effect of reduced old - cotton inventory, and domestic cotton prices will face seasonal downward pressure in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 International Market - Supply - demand situation: The 2025/26 global cotton market will have a 250,000 - ton supply - demand gap (production of 25.62 million tons/consumption of 25.87 million tons), with production decreasing by 340,000 tons year - on - year and consumption decreasing by 70,000 tons year - on - year. Brazil's cotton harvesting is over 60% and processing is 20%. US new cotton boll opening rate is 40%, 12 percentage points faster week - on - week but 4 percentage points lower than last year, and the picking progress is 8%, 1 percentage point higher than last year. In early September, US cotton export contracts decreased by 26,200 tons to 29,700 tons, and shipments decreased by 5,300 tons to 30,800 tons. Uzbekistan plans to boost the cotton textile industry through industrial subsidy policies [4]. - US cotton data: In September 2025, the US cotton planting area was 56.427 million mu, up 115,000 mu month - on - month; the harvest area was 44.729 million mu, up 79,000 mu month - on - month; the abandonment rate was 20.7%, with little change. The yield per unit was expected to be 64.3 kg/mu, slightly decreasing month - on - month; the production was expected to be 2.879 million tons, up 2,000 tons month - on - month. Consumption was expected to be 370,000 tons, and exports were expected to be 2.613 million tons, with no significant changes. The ending inventory remained at 784,000 tons [14]. - US cotton growth progress: As of September 14, the US cotton boll opening rate was 50%, 3 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. The picking progress was 9%, 1 percentage point behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. In the main producing area of Texas, the boll opening rate was 46%, the same as last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average; the picking progress was 21%, the same as last year and 4 percentage points ahead of the five - year average [16]. - US drought situation: As of September 9, the area of drought - affected regions in the US accounted for 35.9%, 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous week. About 32% of cotton - planting areas in the US were affected by drought, 2 percentage points higher than the previous week. In Texas, about 7% of cotton - planting areas were affected by drought, 4 percentage points higher than the previous week [19]. - US cotton export: As of September 11, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed net export contracts for 925,000 tons of 2025/26 cotton, reaching 35.40% of the annual expected exports, and had cumulatively shipped 188,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 20.27%. China had cumulatively signed contracts to import 17,000 tons of US cotton, accounting for 1.81% of the signed US cotton contracts, and had cumulatively shipped 363 tons, accounting for 0.19% of the total US cotton shipments and 2.17% of China's signed contracts [28]. 3.2 Domestic Market - Supply situation: The domestic cotton market is in the new cotton harvesting period. Xinjiang and other main producing areas' new cotton is in the boll - opening stage, and mechanical harvesting is expected to start next week. Mainstream institutions predict that the domestic cotton production in 2025 will exceed 7 million tons. As of September 11, the national new cotton picking progress was 0.3%, 0.1 percentage points higher than last year but 0.1 percentage points lower than the four - year average. The initial inventory decreased by 110,000 tons to 6.13 million tons. Due to the increase in cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and a slight increase in yield per unit, the national total production was increased by 520,000 tons to 7.42 million tons this month. The annual import volume remained at 1.4 million tons [5][26]. - Demand situation: The downstream demand is under pressure. The effect of textile industry's rush - to - export has faded, and overseas orders have shrunk. In August, textile and clothing exports were 26.5 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. From January to August, cumulative exports were 197.2 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. The new - year textile production capacity in Xinjiang will increase steadily, and the overall textile cotton demand will remain high. The annual textile cotton consumption expectation was increased by 120,000 tons to 8.02 million tons this month, and other consumption and exports remained at 380,000 tons and 20,000 tons respectively [5][26]. - Market structure: The old - cotton inventory is continuously consumed, supporting high spot prices, but textile enterprises' purchasing willingness is low, resulting in a situation of high prices but few transactions in the spot market [5]. - Spinning enterprises situation: Small and medium - sized spinning enterprises maintain a low operating rate, and the market demand is difficult to support the recovery of the operating rate. Large and medium - sized spinning enterprises with stable customer groups have relatively stable orders and a high operating rate, but yarn prices are difficult to rise, and enterprises have difficulty in making profits, mainly selling at a loss. The operating rates of spinning mills in various regions are basically stable. Large spinning mills in Xinjiang operate at about 90%, large enterprises in Henan operate at an average of 60% - 70%, and large spinning mills in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Anhui along the Yangtze River operate at an average of 60% - 70% [30]. - Commercial inventory: As of August 2025, China's domestic cotton commercial inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 338,500 tons, and it was at a historically low level seasonally [32]. 3.3 USDA Data - Global cotton supply - demand forecast: In the 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand forecast, production increased month - on - month, consumption increased month - on - month, and import and export trade volumes both increased slightly. Due to the decrease in initial inventory, the ending inventory decreased again this year. In the 2024/25 supply - demand forecast, global cotton production and consumption increased, and the ending inventory decreased again because the increase in consumption was greater than that in production [13].
棉花期货一周简评
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-09-20 07:04