投资策略周报：坚持科技，高低切的时机尚未到来-20250920

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the technology sector is favored in the current market environment due to three main long-term factors: relative profitability superiority, overseas mapping support, and the upward resonance of the global semiconductor cycle [1][10][14] - The technology sector has regained relative profitability advantages, which is a sufficient condition for mid-term style superiority, similar to occurrences in 2013, 2015, and 2020-2021 [11][12] - The current semiconductor cycle is expected to experience upward momentum driven by AI computing demand, traditional terminal recovery, and policy support, expanding the beneficiary range [14][28] Group 2 - The current market features frequent micro signals, such as increased trading volume and active fund inflows through ETFs, while macro expectations have not significantly changed [2][18] - The A-share market is characterized by an "incremental market" feature, with ETF inflows reinforcing the importance of leading stocks and creating a concentrated profit effect [18][19] - Despite positive industry catalysts, A-share earnings have not shown clear signs of a turning point, with ongoing declines in new home sales and negative growth in industrial profits [19][22] Group 3 - Conditions for a high-low switch are currently not met, with short-term indicators suggesting that a TMT trading volume exceeding 40% often leads to short-term adjustments in technology stocks [3][25] - Long-term conditions for a high-low switch depend on changes in relative profitability advantages, with key observations needed on real estate recovery and A-share earnings improvement [3][29] Group 4 - Investment strategies should focus on a dual-driven approach, prioritizing technology while considering PPI trading, with specific attention to sectors like gaming, media, internet, and consumer electronics [4][30] - The recommended sector allocation includes technology growth, cyclical recovery, and structural opportunities in overseas markets, emphasizing the importance of industry selection over stock selection [30][32] - The report suggests a diversified investment approach, including stable dividends, gold, and high-yield stocks, to build a solid portfolio [32]