A股市场运行周报第59期：上证“回退”中枢震荡，控弹性、调结构、勿追高-20250920

Core Views - The market experienced a pullback this week, with increased volatility, primarily due to the weakness in the large financial sector and divergence in broad indices. The Shanghai Composite Index has not achieved the expected upward movement and is now in a "central oscillation" phase, with previous low points at 3732 and 3702 providing effective support [1][2][3] - It is anticipated that the Shanghai Composite will continue to consolidate for 1-2 weeks, with the potential to challenge the maximum amplitude since 2015 (5178-2440) at the 0.618 level in Q4 2025, contingent on smooth market rotation [2][3] Weekly Market Overview - Major indices showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 down by 1.30%, 1.98%, and 0.44% respectively, while growth indices like the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 saw slight increases of 0.32% and 0.21% [10][53] - The technology sector dominated, with significant gains in hard technology-related industries such as electric new energy, electronics, and communications, which rose by 3.61%, 2.75%, and 1.01% respectively. In contrast, the financial sector faced declines, with banks and non-banking financials down by 4.09% and 3.80% [13][54] - Market sentiment improved with an increase in average daily trading volume to 2.49 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance continued to rise, reaching 2.40 trillion yuan [21][27] Market Attribution - Key events influencing the market included a consensus reached between China and the U.S. regarding the TikTok issue, a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and stable economic performance in China for August, with industrial value-added growth at 5.2% year-on-year [51][52] Future Market Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to undergo a consolidation phase for 1-2 weeks, with previous low points providing support. The market's ability to form a healthy rotation among sectors will be crucial for future upward movement [2][55] - The recommendation is to maintain current positions and consider increasing allocations post-adjustment, particularly favoring real estate, infrastructure, and social services while reducing exposure to technology and media sectors [3][56]