缩量震荡，持续看好

Market Analysis - The A-share market is experiencing a volume contraction and oscillation, indicating a cooling of market sentiment. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.3% to 3820.09 points, with a weekly decline of 1.3% [4][8] - The recent Federal Reserve meeting resulted in a 25 basis point interest rate cut, with expectations for further cuts in October and December, potentially providing more policy space domestically [7][8] - The youth unemployment rate in China has increased, which may lead to further policy adjustments alongside the Fed's actions, potentially enhancing market risk appetite [7] Stock Market Insights - The overall trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 2.35 trillion yuan from 3.17 trillion yuan the previous day, reflecting a decline in trading activity [8] - Market sentiment has cooled, with significant fluctuations in various sectors. Real estate stocks showed volatility, while technology stocks faced increased divergence in trading [8] - The market is expected to continue a "slow bull" trend, with technology growth sectors showing substantial potential in the medium to long term [7] Bond Market Overview - The bond market is characterized by a "short strong, long weak" pattern, with all government bond futures closing lower. The 30-year futures contract fell by 0.76% [9] - The People's Bank of China has maintained liquidity support, conducting a 354.3 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of 124.3 billion yuan for the day [11] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market showed mixed results, with energy products generally declining. Crude oil prices fell by 1.87%, while some anti-involution products like焦煤 (coking coal) and industrial silicon saw price increases [11] - The report highlights that anti-involution products are expected to remain a focus in the domestic commodity market, with policy developments playing a crucial role in their performance [11] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong industrial trends, such as artificial intelligence and solid-state batteries, as well as non-ferrous metals benefiting from a weaker dollar [12][13] - For commodities, precious metals and non-ferrous metals are expected to perform well due to global liquidity easing, while industrial products will be influenced by supply-side dynamics and policy expectations [13]