油脂周报：回落企稳后买入思路-20250920

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central price of palm oil is supported by a balanced supply - demand situation in the near term and a tight supply expectation in the fourth quarter. The price of soybean oil fluctuates following palm oil due to high domestic inventory and a decline in soybean prices at the cost - end. Rapeseed oil shows relatively strong performance, possibly reflecting the expectation of a decline in inventory due to difficulties in importing Canadian rapeseed [11]. - In the international market, the USDA September report maintains that the industrial demand for soybean oil in the US in the 2025/2026 season will increase by about 1.5 million tons, and the estimated import of rapeseed oil will increase by 260,000 tons year - on - year. India imported about 1.62 million tons of vegetable oil in August, and its inventory accumulated to 1.87 million tons, still some distance from the average safe level of 2.27 million tons in previous years. The global new - crop rapeseed shows a yield - increasing pattern, with the USDA September report increasing the rapeseed yield forecast by 1.38 million tons month - on - month and about 5.2 million tons year - on - year [11]. - In the domestic market, the trading volume of soybean oil is average, and that of palm oil is weak this week, with the spot basis slightly declining. The total domestic vegetable oil inventory is about 500,000 tons higher than last year, indicating a relatively sufficient supply. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will maintain a slightly declining trend at a high level, the palm oil import is expected to remain at a slightly lower - than - neutral level with stable inventory, and the de - stocking progress of rapeseed oil slows down due to high prices. However, due to high - margin requirements for importing Canadian rapeseed, the total domestic vegetable oil inventory will remain high in the short term and show a downward trend in the medium term [11]. - The low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the boost to soybean oil demand from the US biodiesel policy draft, the limited yield - increasing potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to the continuous growth of biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the central price of vegetable oils. Vegetable oils are in a state of balanced or slightly loose actual supply - demand and tight expected supply. They are expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium term before the inventory in sales areas and producing areas is fully accumulated and negative feedback from demand in sales areas appears. Currently, the valuation is high. It is advisable to adopt the strategy of buying after the price drops and stabilizes [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: This week, the three major vegetable oils mainly fluctuated, and the net long positions of foreign capital seats also fluctuated. Palm oil showed mediocre performance due to weak export data from Malaysia, with a decline in high - frequency production in September in Malaysia and still no significant increase in exports. Soybean oil fluctuated following palm oil due to high domestic inventory and a decline in soybean prices at the cost - end. Rapeseed oil showed relatively strong performance, possibly reflecting the expectation of a decline in inventory due to difficulties in importing Canadian rapeseed [11]. - International Vegetable Oils: The USDA September report maintains that the industrial demand for soybean oil in the US in the 2025/2026 season will increase by about 1.5 million tons, and the estimated import of rapeseed oil will increase by 260,000 tons year - on - year. India imported about 1.62 million tons of vegetable oil in August, and its inventory accumulated to 1.87 million tons, still some distance from the average safe level of 2.27 million tons in previous years. The global new - crop rapeseed shows a yield - increasing pattern, with the USDA September report increasing the rapeseed yield forecast by 1.38 million tons month - on - month and about 5.2 million tons year - on - year [11]. - Domestic Vegetable Oils: This week, the trading volume of soybean oil is average, and that of palm oil is weak, with the spot basis slightly declining. The total domestic vegetable oil inventory is about 500,000 tons higher than last year, indicating a relatively sufficient supply. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will maintain a slightly declining trend at a high level, the palm oil import is expected to remain at a slightly lower - than - neutral level with stable inventory, and the de - stocking progress of rapeseed oil slows down due to high prices. However, due to high - margin requirements for importing Canadian rapeseed, the total domestic vegetable oil inventory will remain high in the short term and show a downward trend in the medium term [11]. - Viewpoint Summary: The low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the boost to soybean oil demand from the US biodiesel policy draft, the limited yield - increasing potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to the continuous growth of biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the central price of vegetable oils. Vegetable oils are in a state of balanced or slightly loose actual supply - demand and tight expected supply. They are expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium term before the inventory in sales areas and producing areas is fully accumulated and negative feedback from demand in sales areas appears. Currently, the valuation is high. It is advisable to adopt the strategy of buying after the price drops and stabilizes [11]. - Fundamental Assessment: The basis is at a low level, the absolute valuation is high, the export of Malaysian palm oil is average with high production, indicating average demand in sales areas or high production in Indonesia, and there is a tight supply expectation in the medium term. Global rapeseed and sunflower seed production is expected to increase by 5 million tons and 3 million tons respectively. India and China currently make purchases based on rigid demand, and the relatively low inventory in India may attract palm oil buyers at low prices [12]. - Trading Strategy Recommendation: For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to be bullish. The core driving logic is the factors mentioned above that support the central price of vegetable oils. Currently, the valuation is high, and it is advisable to adopt the strategy of buying after the price drops and stabilizes [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis and seasonal basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, including the basis of palm oil 01 contract, soybean oil 01 contract, and rapeseed oil 01 contract, as well as their seasonal basis charts, to analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][20][22][24] 3.3 Supply Side - Palm Oil Production and Export: The report shows the monthly production and export volume of Malaysian palm oil and the monthly production and export volume of palm oil and palm kernel oil in Indonesia through charts, which helps to understand the supply situation of palm oil [27][28] - Soybean and Rapeseed Supply: It presents the weekly arrival volume and port inventory of soybeans, as well as the monthly import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil through charts, reflecting the supply situation of soybean and rapeseed [29][30] - Palm Oil Production Area Weather: The report shows the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil production areas and related climate indices and phenomena through charts, which may affect palm oil production [32][33] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - Total Inventory of Three Major Vegetable Oils: The report shows the total inventory of domestic three major vegetable oils and the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India through charts, reflecting the overall inventory situation [39] - Profit and Inventory of Different Vegetable Oils: It presents the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil mills, the average coastal spot crushing profit of rapeseed and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, as well as the inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and the inventory of palm oil and palm kernel oil in Indonesia through charts, to analyze the profit and inventory situation of different vegetable oils [42][44][45][47] 3.5 Cost Side - Palm Oil Cost: The report shows the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil through charts, reflecting the cost situation of palm oil [50] - Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed Cost: It presents the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of rapeseed through charts, reflecting the cost situation of rapeseed oil and rapeseed [53] 3.6 Demand Side - Vegetable Oil Trading Volume: The report shows the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year through charts, reflecting the trading demand for vegetable oils [56] - Biodiesel Profit: It presents the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) through charts, which helps to understand the profit situation of biodiesel and its impact on vegetable oil demand [58]