蛋白粕周报：短空，中期区间震荡-20250920

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term bearish, medium - term range - bound [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current domestic supply pressure is significant, with ship purchases covering until December, and soybean inventory at a record high. The cost side lacks clear positive factors, which may trigger a short - term decline. In the medium term, the global soybean supply surplus sets the general direction of selling on rallies. However, due to the relatively low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the soybean meal market will mainly move in a range [9][10][11] 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - International Soybeans: US soybeans fluctuated this week, and the global soybean supply pressure has not significantly eased. Brazil is continuously expanding its planting area, and there is no strong growth engine on the demand side. The Brazilian soybean premium was slightly lowered this week. The market expected that the China - US negotiations this week might involve US soybean imports, but the announcement of the leaders' call on Friday night did not mention it. US soybeans fell more than 2% in after - hours trading. Looking ahead, the valuation of US soybeans is relatively low. If China - US soybean trade returns to normal, the Brazilian soybean price may still have a slight downward space compared to previous years. The rebound of US soybeans and the decline of the Brazilian premium may offset each other. Coupled with the expected decline in US soybean yield and trading related to the Brazilian planting season, the space for further decline in China's soybean import cost is limited, but the upside is also restricted by the lack of a significant decline in supply [9] - Domestic Double - Meal: Domestic soybean meal spot was weak this week, with stable basis, and the futures market declined following the cost. Domestic trading was average, and pick - up was at a relatively high level. The inventory days of feed enterprises were 9.42 days, slightly higher than the same period last year. As of September 16, institutional statistics showed that the ship purchases were 13.79 million tons in March, 10.29 million tons in April, 11.81 million tons in May, 12.72 million tons in June, 10.69 million tons in July, 9.20 million tons in August, 8.76 million tons in September, and 8.26 million tons in October. The current ship - purchase progress indicates that China's soybean inventory may decline around the end of September. Coupled with the current large - scale pick - up of domestic soybean meal, the market may have stocked up in advance for the Double Festival. The domestic soybean - based basis has certain support under the strong pick - up. It is expected that domestic soybean meal will first see a decline in crushing profit due to the expectation of US soybean imports, then the soybean import cost will stabilize after the trading of Brazilian price cuts and US soybean rebounds ends, and then it will rebound from the bottom during the South American planting season, and the subsequent market will depend on the development of the South American planting season [9] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, the market is expected to be range - bound. The current domestic supply pressure is large, and the cost side has no clear positive factors, which may lead to a short - term decline. In the medium term, the global soybean supply surplus sets the direction of selling on rallies, but due to the low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the soybean meal market will mainly move in a range [11] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - The report presents multiple charts, including those showing the spot prices of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong; the basis of the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal; the price spreads between different contracts of soybean meal; and the fund positions of US soybeans and soybean meal, all sourced from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [17][20][25] 3.3 Supply Side - US Soybean Planting Progress: The report shows charts of US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - to - excellent rate from 2021 to 2025, sourced from NASS and the research center of WK Futures [30] - Weather Conditions: There is a possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January. The report also presents charts related to precipitation in US soybean - producing areas and Canadian rapeseed - producing areas, as well as the impact of La Nina on precipitation in North America and the climate in South America, sourced from NOAA and the research center of WK Futures [33][35] - US Soybean Export Progress: The report shows charts of the total amount of signed US soybean export contracts to China in the current market year, the sales completion rate of US soybeans in the current year, the total amount of signed US soybean export contracts in the current market year, and the cumulative value of US soybean exports to China in the current market year, sourced from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [49] - China's Oilseed Imports: The report shows charts of the monthly imports and forecasts of soybeans and rapeseeds in China, sourced from customs, MYSTEEL, and the research center of WK Futures [52] - China's Oil Mill Crushing: The report shows charts of the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills in China, sourced from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [54] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - Oilseed Inventory: The report shows charts of soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills, sourced from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [58] - Protein Meal Inventory: The report shows charts of the soybean meal inventory and forecast of major coastal oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of major coastal oil mills, sourced from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [61] - Protein Meal Crushing Profit: The report shows charts of the crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the crushing profit of imported rapeseeds along the coast, sourced from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [63] 3.5 Demand Side - The report shows charts of the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills during the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal, as well as the breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and white - feather broilers, sourced from MYSTEEL, WIND, and the research center of WK Futures [65]