Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the nickel price may decline to find a valuation bottom if the refined nickel inventory continues to increase, but in the long - term, the nickel price is supported by the US easing expectations, domestic anti - involution policies, and the new RKAB approval, so it is recommended to go long on dips. The short - term price range of the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. Grouping by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Resource end: Nickel ore prices were stable this week. In the Philippines, the weather improved, but due to the rising nickel - iron price, the subsequent mine quotes may increase. In Indonesia, the overall supply - demand was loose, the wet - process ore price declined slightly, but the downward space was limited as smelters accelerated stockpiling due to concerns about RKAB quotas [12]. - Nickel - iron: The nickel - iron price was stable. The supply side had stable ore prices, and although the smelter's profit loss was repaired, it was still low, so smelters held back supply. The demand side was supported by the expected increase in steel mills' production in September, but steel mills were cautious in raw material procurement. The nickel - iron price is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend in the short term [12]. - Intermediate products: The supply of market - available goods was tight, increasing the sellers' bargaining power. The demand side entered the peak season, and downstream enterprises' acceptance of high - priced MHP increased, leading to a higher MHP coefficient price [12]. - Refined nickel: The nickel price fluctuated weakly. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, but Powell's speech was hawkish, and some funds cashed in previous expectations, pressuring the non - ferrous sector. The spot market trading was average, and the spot premium of refined nickel was stable [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Refined nickel prices: The prices of Jinchuan nickel, Russian nickel, LME closing price, and SHFE closing price all decreased, with declines of - 0.06%, - 0.22%, - 0.79%, and - 0.39% respectively. The import loss improved from - 6.20% to - 4.10% [16]. - Inventory: The LME inventory, SHFE inventory, and nickel - plate spot inventory increased by 1.49%, 8.49%, and 5.72% respectively, while the nickel - bean spot inventory decreased by - 0.12%. The bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [16]. - Spot premium: The Russian nickel spot premium to the near - month contract was 300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the Jinchuan nickel spot premium averaged 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week [22]. - Secondary nickel prices: The domestic high - nickel pig iron price was 949 - 960 yuan/nickel point, up 1 yuan/nickel point from last week, and the domestic nickel sulfate price was 28,020 - 28,220 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3. Cost Side - Nickel ore: The domestic port nickel - ore inventory increased by 1.0% to 1400.1 million tons as of September 19. The nickel - ore prices were stable, with the 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore at 52.2 US dollars/wet ton and the 1.2% grade at 23 US dollars/wet ton, and the 1.5% grade Philippine nickel ore at 57 US dollars/wet ton, all unchanged from last week [32][35]. - Nickel - iron: No specific new cost - related information was provided other than the production profit situation in previous periods [39]. - Intermediate products: In August, Indonesia's MHP production was 43,000 nickel tons, up 3000 tons month - on - month, and high - grade nickel matte production was 29,000 nickel tons, up 4000 tons month - on - month. As of September 19, the Indonesian MHP FOB price was 13,152 US dollars/metal ton, with an MHP coefficient of 0.875 (up 0.005 from last week), and the high - grade nickel matte was 13,415 US dollars/metal ton, with a coefficient of 0.9 (unchanged) [42][47]. 4. Refined Nickel - Supply: In August 2025, the national refined nickel production reached 37,000 tons, remaining at a historically high level [52]. - Demand: No new significant demand - related information was provided other than the historical data of stainless - steel production, social inventory, and terminal demand [54][56]. - Import and export: No new import - export data or trends were provided other than historical import - export volume and import profit - loss trends [58]. - Inventory: The global visible nickel inventory increased by 2.1% to 269,000 tons this week [62]. - Cost: No new cost - related information was provided other than the historical production cost and profit - margin data of different processes [64]. 5. Nickel Sulfate - Supply: No new supply - related information was provided other than the historical production and net - import volume data [68]. - Demand: No new demand - related information was provided other than the historical data of ternary power - battery loading volume and ternary precursor production [71]. - Cost and price: No new cost - price information was provided other than the historical production cost and profit - margin data of different processes [73]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - The global nickel supply and demand situation from 2023Q1 to 2025Q4 was presented. The total supply exceeded the total demand in most quarters, with a cumulative supply - demand surplus of 166,400 nickel tons in 2025 [79].
镍周报：降息预期兑现，镍价小幅回落-20250920
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-20 14:24