铂族金属周报：海外宽松货币政策将驱动，铂金价格表现强势-20250920

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the expectation of loose monetary policy will drive the subsequent prices of platinum - group metals to perform strongly. The price of platinum, with more obvious financial attributes, is stronger than that of palladium, with more obvious industrial attributes. It is recommended to buy platinum at low prices and then focus on the opportunity to buy palladium after the rise of platinum prices is established [9][10]. - The NYMEX platinum main - contract price is expected to rise further as it has achieved 7 consecutive weekly positive lines under the drive of loose expectations. The NYMEX palladium main - contract price has stabilized around $1,100 per ounce and will be suppressed when it rebounds to $1,255 per ounce. Attention should be paid to its rebound opportunity when it touches the lower trend line [12][15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - Platinum Key Data: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract rose 1.16% to $1,419 per ounce, the five - day average trading volume rose 5.80% to 31,371.4 hands, the main - contract open interest decreased 27.85% to 47,061 hands, the inventory increased 12.40% to 18,363.77 kilograms, the CFTC managed - fund net long position increased by 1,395 hands to 14,647 hands, the CFTC commercial net short position increased by 1,130 hands to 25,106 hands, and the platinum ETF holdings increased 0.27% to 74,556.02 kilograms [10]. - Palladium Key Data: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract fell 4.40% to $1,173.5 per ounce, the five - day average trading volume decreased 3.11% to 5,894 hands, the main - contract open interest rose 1.05% to 19,028 hands, the inventory increased 2.74% to 4,681.07 kilograms, the CFTC managed - fund net short position decreased by 775 hands to 5,191 hands, the CFTC commercial net short position increased by 373 hands to 2,077 hands, and the palladium ETF holdings increased 1.70% to 14,131.04 kilograms [10]. 3.2. Market Review - Price and Open Interest: The NYMEX platinum main - contract price rose 1.16% to $1,419 per ounce, and the open interest as of the latest reporting period rose to 100,289 hands. The NYMEX palladium main - contract price fell 4.4% to $1,173.5 per ounce, and the open interest as of the latest reporting period rose to 19,900 hands [21][24]. - Domestic Platinum Price: As of September 19, the spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 326.69 yuan per gram [27]. - Lease Rate: As of September 19, the one - month implied lease rate of platinum fell from the high of the range to 10.21%, while that of palladium rebounded to 10.21% [31]. - CFTC Net Positions: As of the latest reporting period on September 16, the NYMEX platinum managed - fund net long position increased by 1,395 hands to 14,647 hands, and the NYMEX palladium managed - fund net short position was 19,402 hands [34][37]. 3.3. Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - Platinum: As of September 19, the total platinum ETF holdings were 74.55 tons. The CME platinum inventory increased by 1,874.87 kilograms to 18.36 tons this week [48][55]. - Palladium: As of September 19, the total palladium ETF holdings were 14.13 tons. The CME palladium inventory as of September 19 was 4,681.07 kilograms, an increase of 334.89 kilograms this week [51][60]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - Platinum Supply: The platinum production of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 129.95 tons in 2024. The platinum production in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to reach 33.18 tons [66]. - Palladium Supply: The total palladium production of the top 15 mines in 2025 will slightly contract, with a 0.86% decrease to 165.78 tons. The production in the fourth quarter will be 41.36 tons [69]. - Chinese Imports: China's platinum imports in August were 8.21 tons, showing a rebound from July, while palladium imports in August were 2.06 tons, showing a decline from July [72][75]. - Automobile Production: No specific conclusions are drawn from the automobile production data, but data on Chinese, Japanese, German, and American automobile production are presented [77][80][83]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The global platinum supply - demand balance shows a supply shortfall in 2025, and the global palladium supply - demand balance shows a supply surplus in 2025 [86][87]. 3.5. Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread: Relevant data and charts on NYMEX platinum 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 spreads are presented [91][92][96]. - NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread: Relevant data and charts on NYMEX palladium 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 spreads are presented [104][100][101]. - London - NYMEX Spread: Charts of the spread between the London spot platinum price and the NYMEX platinum price, and the spread between the London spot palladium price and the NYMEX palladium price are presented [106].