铁矿石周报：铁水延续高位，关注商品整体氛围-20250920

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The iron ore price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. In the short - term, the hot metal production remains strong, and the ore price is supported before steel mills reduce production. The positive market sentiment after the China - US leaders' call also has a positive impact on the ore price. Further observation of downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction speed is needed [11][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The global iron ore shipment volume was 35.731 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.169 million tons. Australia and Brazil's total iron ore shipment was 29.778 million tons, an increase of 6.482 million tons. Australia's shipment was 20.846 million tons, an increase of 2.622 million tons, with 18.362 million tons shipped to China, an increase of 3.049 million tons. Brazil's shipment was 8.932 million tons, an increase of 3.86 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.923 million tons, a decrease of 1.806 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 23.623 million tons, a decrease of 0.857 million tons [11][13]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal production was 2.4102 million tons, an increase of 0.047 million tons from last week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.35%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points [11][13]. - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 143.8168 million tons, a decrease of 0.7444 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.5103 million tons, an increase of 0.0664 million tons [11][13]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - Price Difference: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 73 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 18.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price difference was 129 yuan/ton, a change of + 3.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference was 173 yuan/ton, a change of + 2.0 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was 28.0 yuan/ton, a change of + 10.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feeding ratio was 15.05%, a change of - 0.25 percentage points. The lump ore feeding ratio was 12.28%, a change of + 0.4 percentage points. The sinter feeding ratio was 72.67%, a change of - 0.16 percentage points. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2285 yuan/ton, with no change; in Zhangjiagang, it was 2130 yuan/ton, a change of + 50 yuan/ton [25]. - Profit: The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a change of - 1.3 percentage points from last week. The PB powder import profit was - 14.01 yuan/wet ton [28]. - Freight: No specific data analysis on freight is provided in the summary part, only relevant charts are shown. 3.3. Inventory - Port Inventory: The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 138.0108 million tons, a change of - 0.4839 million tons. The pellet inventory was 291,240 tons, a change of + 3840 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 1.02666 million tons, a change of - 0.05196 million tons. The lump ore inventory was 1.67176 million tons, a change of + 0.04523 million tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 5.77557 million tons, a change of - 0.03094 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 5.26652 million tons, a change of + 0.0383 million tons [35][38][41]. - Steel Mill Inventory: The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory was 9.30943 million tons, an increase of 0.31638 million tons from last week [46]. 3.4. Supply Side - Overseas Shipment: The latest 19 - port data shows that Australia's shipment to China was 17.367 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.445 million tons. Brazil's shipment was 8.693 million tons, an increase of 3.818 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipment to China was 6.372 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.388 million tons. BHP's shipment to China was 4.798 million tons, an increase of 0.272 million tons. Vale's shipment was 6.112 million tons, an increase of 2.591 million tons. FMG's shipment to China was 3.981 million tons, an increase of 0.715 million tons [51][54][57]. - Arrival and Import: The latest 45 - port arrival volume was 23.623 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.857 million tons. In July, China's non - Australia and Brazil iron ore imports were 17.5216 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.1066 million tons [60]. - Domestic Mines: The domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 61.65%, a change of + 0.42 percentage points. The daily average iron concentrate powder output of domestic mines was 48,140 tons, a change of + 330 tons [66]. 3.5. Demand Side - Hot Metal Production and Capacity Utilization: The domestic daily average hot metal production was 2.4102 million tons, an increase of 0.047 million tons from last week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.35%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points [71]. - Ore Clearance and Consumption: The 45 - port iron ore daily average clearance volume was 3.3917 million tons, a change of + 0.0789 million tons. The steel mill's imported iron ore daily consumption was 2.9745 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.008 million tons [74]. 3.6. Basis As of September 19, the calculated iron ore BRBF basis was 50.16 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 5.85% [79].