贵金属周报：美联储降息周期开启，贵金属价格将持续走强-20250920

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed has initiated a new round of interest - rate cuts, and precious metal prices will continue to strengthen. "Preventive interest - rate cuts" ease the overseas recession expectation, driving the gold - silver ratio down, and silver will outperform gold in this interest - rate cut cycle [1][11]. - The dovish monetary policy stance of new Fed governor Milan on Friday drove silver prices to recover previous losses. The market should pay attention to the possibility of Milan becoming the new Fed chair. The current strategy for precious metals is to buy on dips, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold at 823 - 850 yuan/gram and that for Shanghai silver at 9799 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Market Outlook - Weekly Review: Gold and silver prices were strong this week. Shanghai gold rose 0.93% to 838.26 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver rose 2.34% to 10204.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX gold rose 1.05% to 3719.40 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 1.60% to 43.37 dollars/ounce. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.14%, and the U.S. dollar index rose 0.03% to 97.65 [11]. - Fed's Interest - Rate Cut: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the monetary policy stance was less dovish than expected. The "risk - management - style" interest - rate cut eased the market's expectation of an overseas economic recession, which is positive for silver with more obvious industrial attributes. The fact that "Trump - faction" governors did not vote against and Powell's statement of "acting with a high degree of unity today" dampened the market's dovish expectations [11]. - Gold - Silver Ratio: The "preventive interest - rate cut" will drive the gold - silver ratio down, and silver will perform better than gold as the overseas recession expectation eases and global manufacturing PMI recovers [11]. - Milan's Statement: Milan, a new Fed governor, made a very dovish statement on Friday, driving silver prices to recover previous losses. His statement had a significant impact on the market's expectation of the Fed's monetary policy [11]. - Market Outlook: After Milan's statement, silver prices were strong. The current strategy for precious metals is to buy on dips, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold at 823 - 850 yuan/gram and that for Shanghai silver at 9799 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3.2 Market Review - Prices: Gold and silver prices were strong. Shanghai gold rose 0.93%, Shanghai silver rose 2.34%, COMEX gold rose 1.05%, and COMEX silver rose 1.60% [11][29]. - Positions: Domestic and foreign gold and silver positions increased. Shanghai gold's total positions rose 1.33% to 44.89 million lots, COMEX gold's total positions rose 1.29% to 51.62 million lots as of the latest report period. Shanghai silver's total positions rose to 911,000 lots on Friday night, and COMEX silver's total positions rose 3.99% to 163,000 lots as of the latest report period [32][35]. - Managed Fund Net Positions: As of the September 16 report period, COMEX gold and silver managed fund net positions declined. COMEX gold's managed fund net position decreased by 4548 lots to 158,900 lots, and COMEX silver's managed fund net position decreased slightly by 49 lots to 35,800 lots [37]. - ETF Positions: As of September 19, the total position of gold ETFs was 2229.7 tons, and the total position of foreign silver ETFs was 27,681.17 tons [40]. 3.3 Interest Rates and Liquidity - U.S. Treasury Yields: The report shows the trends of U.S. long - and short - term Treasury yields and the spreads between different - term Treasury bonds [51][52]. - Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations: The report presents the trends of the U.S. federal funds rate, overnight reverse - repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal interest rate, real interest rate, and inflation expectation [54][55]. - Fed's Balance Sheet: This week, the U.S. Treasury's TGA account balance increased by 13.9557 billion dollars to 80.7142 billion dollars, and the deposit reserve balance decreased by 13.055 billion dollars to 3.02 trillion dollars [57][61]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - CPI & PCE: In August, the U.S. CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 2.70%. The seasonally - adjusted CPI was 0.4% month - on - month, higher than the expected 0.30% and the previous value of 0.20%. The un - seasonally - adjusted core CPI was 3.1% year - on - year, and the seasonally - adjusted core CPI was 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations and the previous value [66]. - Employment: The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending September 13 was 231,000, lower than the expected 240,000 and the previous value of 264,000 [69]. - PMI & PPI: In August, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than the expected 49, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52, higher than the expected and previous value of 50.1 [72]. - New Home Data: In July, the annualized total number of new home starts in the U.S. was 1.428 million, significantly higher than the expected 1.29 million and the previous value of 1.358 million. The annualized total number of building permits was 1.354 million, lower than the expected 1.386 million and the previous value of 1.393 million [75]. 3.5 Precious Metal Spreads - Gold Basis: The report shows the trends of the gold TD - SHFE basis [78][79]. - Silver Basis: The report shows the trends of the silver TD - SHFE basis [81][82]. - Gold and Silver Domestic - Foreign Spreads: The report shows the trends of the domestic - foreign spreads of gold and silver [84][85]. 3.6 Precious Metal Inventories - Silver Inventory: The report shows the trends of silver inventories in different exchanges [91][92]. - Gold Inventory: The report shows the trends of gold inventories in COMEX and LBMA [95].