锰硅周报：预期带动黑色板块表现渐强，铁合金继续跟随黑色板块波动-20250920

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Expectations are driving the black sector to perform stronger, and ferroalloys will continue to follow the fluctuations of the black sector [1][77][93] - In the short - term, affected by real - demand factors, the black sector may face a downward correction risk after the National Day holiday. However, considering the subsequent overseas fiscal and monetary easing, and China's policy space expansion, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [15][93] - Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. It may follow the black sector's trend and is unlikely to have an independent strong market without sudden disturbances from the manganese ore end [15] - Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and it will also likely follow the black sector's trend with a relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [93] 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Report 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Weekly Highlights: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5820 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; futures price is 5964 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton; basis is 46 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan/ton; basis rate is 0.77%. Manganese silicon production profit remains low but has increased in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi. Costs in these regions have decreased. Manganese silicon weekly output is 20.88 tons, down 0.54 tons. Rebar weekly output is 206.45 tons, down 5.48 tons. Daily hot - metal output is 241.02 tons, up 0.47 tons. Manganese silicon's apparent inventory is 51.89 tons, up 2.99 tons [14] - Fundamental Assessment: The basis has declined but is still at a neutral level. Production profit has recovered. Rebar demand is weak, while hot - metal output remains high. Apparent inventory is at a high level. Hebei Steel's September tender volume has increased slightly, but the tender price has decreased. The manganese silicon price has shown an upward trend in the short - term but is still within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 6000 yuan/ton and the resistance of the right - side downward trend line [15] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - As of September 19, 2025, Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot market price is 5820 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; the futures main contract (SM601) closes at 5964 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton; the basis is 46 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the basis rate is 0.77%, at a relatively neutral level in historical statistics [20] 3.3 Profit and Cost - Production Profit: As of September 19, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon (excluding depreciation) remains low. In Inner Mongolia, it is - 251 yuan/ton, up 113 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, - 338 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan/ton; in Guangxi, - 548 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton [25] - Production Cost: As of September 19, 2025, the estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia is 5981 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, 6038 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton; in Guangxi, 6298 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The price of South African ore, Australian ore, and other raw materials has changed, and the market price of off - grade metallurgical coke has decreased [27][30] - Manganese Ore Import: In July, the manganese ore import volume was 274 tons, up 5.97 tons month - on - month and 45.65 tons year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 1720.3 tons, up 94.17 tons or 5.79% year - on - year [33] - Manganese Ore Inventory: As of September 12, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 452.5 tons, up 9.3 tons month - on - month [36] 3.4 Supply and Demand - Total Output: As of September 19, 2025, the weekly output of manganese silicon is 20.88 tons, down 0.54 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative weekly output has decreased by about 1.57% compared to the same period last year. In August 2025, the output was 90.93 tons, up 8.96 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to August decreased by 26.28 tons or 3.82% year - on - year [44] - Main Production Areas Output: No specific output data for main production areas are summarized other than the overall output - Steel Tendering: Hebei Steel Group's manganese silicon tender volume in September 2025 is 17000 tons, up 900 tons month - on - month and 6500 tons year - on - year; the tender price is 6000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton month - on - month [55] - Consumption: As of September 19, 2025, the weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon is 12.14 tons, down 0.09 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar is 206.45 tons, down 5.48 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative weekly output has increased by about 0.04% year - on - year. The daily hot - metal output is 241.02 tons, up 0.47 tons, and the cumulative weekly output has increased by about 3.67% year - on - year. In August 2025, the national crude steel output was 7737 tons, down 233 tons month - on - month and 53 tons year - on - year [58][61] 3.5 Inventory - Visible Inventory: As of September 19, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon is 51.89 tons, up 2.99 tons week - on - week, and the inventory level remains at a high level compared to the same period [68] - Sample Enterprises Inventory: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises is 19.89 tons, up 3.21 tons week - on - week [71] - Steel Mill Inventory: In September, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills is 15.93 days, up 0.95 days month - on - month, and the inventory available days continue to rise but are still at a relatively low level compared to historical data [74] 3.6 Graphical Trends - From September 15 - 19, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 132 yuan/ton or 2.27%. In the daily - line level, the price touched around 6000 yuan/ton and then declined. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 6000 yuan/ton and the resistance of the right - side downward trend line. The key time point for the market may be around mid - to - late October [77] Silicon Iron Report 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Weekly Highlights: The daily hot - metal output is 241.02 tons, up 0.47 tons, and the cumulative weekly output has increased by about 3.67% year - on - year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal is 54.41 tons, down 3.31 tons or 5.73% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export of silicon iron is 23.6 tons, down 1.22 tons or 4.93% year - on - year. The estimated visible inventory of silicon iron is 15.82 tons, up 0.29 tons week - on - week. The basis of Tianjin 72 silicon iron is 64 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate is 1.10%, at a relatively neutral level. The estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai has increased. The production cost in main production areas has remained basically stable [92] - Fundamental Assessment: The basis is at a relatively neutral level. The production profit has slightly recovered. The output has remained basically stable. The demand for iron and steel has recovered, but the demand for exports and magnesium metal is average. The steel tender volume has increased slightly, but the tender price has decreased. The silicon iron price has shown an upward trend in the short - term but is still within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 5800 yuan/ton [93] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - As of September 19, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron is 5800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the futures main contract (SF511) closes at 5736 yuan/ton, up 128 yuan/ton; the basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate is 1.10%, at a relatively neutral level [98] 3.3 Profit and Cost - Production Profit: As of September 19, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia is - 363 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, - 259 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan/ton; in Qinghai, - 346 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton [103] - Production Cost: As of September 19, 2025, the production cost in main production areas has remained basically stable. In Inner Mongolia, it is 5713 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, 5609 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton; in Qinghai, 5716 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan/ton. The price of silica in the northwest region has remained stable, and the price of semi - coke small materials has increased [106][109] 3.4 Supply and Demand - Total Output: As of September 19, 2025, the weekly output of silicon iron is 11.31 tons, remaining basically stable week - on - week, and the cumulative weekly output has increased by about 1.42% compared to the same period last year. In August 2025, the output is 49.33 tons, up 4.66 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to August has increased by 2.8 tons or 0.78% year - on - year [114] - Main Production Areas Output: No specific output data for main production areas are summarized other than the overall output - Steel Tendering: Hebei Steel Group's 75B silicon iron alloy tender volume in September 2025 is 3151 tons, up 316 tons month - on - month and 650 tons year - on - year; the tender price is 5800 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton month - on - month [120] - Steel Consumption: The daily hot - metal output is 241.02 tons, up 0.47 tons, and the cumulative weekly output has increased by about 3.67% year - on - year. In August 2025, the national crude steel output is 7737 tons, down 233 tons month - on - month and 53 tons year - on - year [123] - Non - steel Consumption: From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal is 54.41 tons, down 3.31 tons or 5.73% year - on - year. As of September 19, 2025, the price of magnesium metal in Fugu area remains stable. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export of silicon iron is 23.6 tons, down 1.22 tons or 4.93% year - on - year. The estimated immediate profit of silicon iron export is - 12 yuan/ton, showing a slight recovery but still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of overseas crude steel is 4.89 billion tons, down 400 tons or 0.81% year - on - year [126][129][130] 3.5 Inventory - Visible Inventory: As of September 19, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of silicon iron is 15.82 tons, up 0.29 tons week - on - week, and the inventory level remains at a high level compared to the same period [137] - Steel Mill Inventory: In September, the average available days of silicon iron in steel mills is 15.52 days, up 0.85 days month - on - month, and the raw material inventory in steel mills continues to rise slightly but is still at a relatively low level compared to historical data [140] 3.6 Graphical Trends - From September 15 - 19, the silicon iron futures price fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 150 yuan/ton or 2.69%. In the daily - line level, the price continues to oscillate upwards along the hourly - level upward trend but remains within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 5800 yuan/ton [145]