白糖周报：数据利空，郑糖破位下跌-20250920

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the high import volume in China in August and the significant year - on - year increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in August, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price broke through the support level and declined. The general direction of the sugar price remains bearish. However, considering the abnormal surge in short - term positions and trading volume, there is a possibility of a short - term rebound, so cautious trading is recommended [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: - External Market: The price of raw sugar declined this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar March contract was 16.18 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.35 cents per pound or 2.12% from the previous week. The raw sugar 3 - 5 spread fluctuated at 0.41 cents per pound, up 0.01 cents per pound from the previous week. The London white sugar 3 - 5 spread weakened to 0.4 dollars per ton, down 0.4 dollars per ton from the previous week. The raw - white spread of the March contract fluctuated at 93 dollars per ton, up 2 dollars per ton from the previous week [9]. - Domestic Market: The price of Zhengzhou sugar declined this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5461 yuan per ton, a decrease of 79 yuan per ton or 1.43% from the previous week. The spot price in Guangxi was 5840 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis fluctuated at 379 yuan per ton, up 19 yuan per ton from the previous week. The 1 - 5 spread fluctuated at 15 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan per ton from the previous week. The profit from spot imports after quota increased to 426 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - Industry News: - In the second half of August, the cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 50.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.68%. The sugar production in this region was 3.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.21% [9]. - In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 62,700 tons year - on - year. From January to August 2025, China imported 2.612 million tons of sugar, an increase of 121,000 tons year - on - year [9]. - View and Strategy: The general direction of the sugar price remains bearish. But due to the abnormal surge in short - term positions and trading volume, there may be a short - term rebound. It is recommended to trade cautiously. The trading strategy is to short at high prices, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1, a recommended cycle within 3 months, and the core driving logic being high import supply pressure and the expectation of increased production in the new crushing season. The recommendation level is 3, and it was first proposed on August 16, 2025 [9][11]. 3.2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including spot price and basis, spot - to - spot spreads, domestic - foreign spreads, raw - white spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratio fluctuations. These charts cover various time periods from 2021 to 2026, showing the trends of different spreads such as the basis between Guangxi Nanning spot and Zhengzhou sugar futures, the spreads between different contract months of Zhengzhou sugar, and the spreads between raw sugar and white sugar [17][20][25]. 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - Production: The report shows the monthly and cumulative sugar production in China from 20/21 to 24/25 [41]. - Imports: It presents the monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of sugar, syrup, and premixed powder in China from 2021 to 2025 [44]. - Sales: The monthly and cumulative sugar sales volumes and sales progress in China from 20/21 to 24/25 are shown [49]. - Industrial Inventory: The monthly industrial inventory in China from 2021 to 2025 and the inventory in Guangxi's three - party warehouses are presented [52]. 3.4. International Market Situation - Brazil Central - Southern Production: The report shows the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, the cumulative cane - to - sugar ratio, and the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil from 21/22 to 25/26 [57]. - India Production: The bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in India from 20/21 to 24/25 are presented [62]. - Thailand Production: The bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in Thailand from 20/21 to 24/25 are shown [65]. - Brazil Shipment: The sugar inventory in the central - southern region of Brazil and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports from 21/22 to 25/26 are presented [68].