碳酸锂周报：旺季底部支撑较强-20250920

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the peak season, domestic demand remains high, and lithium carbonate inventories have declined for eight consecutive weeks. Especially, the inventories of upstream salt plants are 30.7% lower than the same period last year. Downstream enterprises still have inventory replenishment demand around the National Day holiday. Before the resumption of production at Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mine, the domestic lithium carbonate spot market may remain tight, and the support for lithium prices at the bottom is strong. Both long and short funds are cautious, waiting for directional drivers. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of supply from the resource end, the fulfillment of strong demand expectations, and the atmosphere in the equity market in the future [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Weekly Key Points Summary: - Futures and Spot Markets: On September 19, the morning quote of the Mysteel MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was 72,987 yuan, with a weekly increase of 2.46%. The average price of MMLC battery-grade lithium carbonate was 73,250 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of the LC2511 contract on the GZEE was 73,960 yuan, with a weekly increase of 3.93% [12]. - Supply: On September 18, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate by SMM was 20,363 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.0%. The weekly output of lithium carbonate from spodumene increased, driving the domestic weekly output of lithium carbonate to a new high. In August 2025, the domestic output of lithium carbonate was 85,240 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.6%, a year-on-year increase of 39.5%, and the cumulative year-on-year increase in the first eight months was 40.4%. In July and August 2025, the export volumes of lithium carbonate from Chile were 20,900 tons and 16,900 tons respectively, of which the exports to China were 13,600 tons and 13,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13% and an increase of 6.9% respectively [12]. - Demand: In August 2025, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles was about 1.7 million, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 23.7% from January to August. According to the CAAM, in August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 27.4% and 26.8% respectively. From January to August, the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively. The sales volume of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales volume of new vehicles. From January to August, the cumulative output of domestic lithium iron phosphate increased by 46.2% year-on-year, and the output of domestic ternary materials increased by 13.1% year-on-year. It is expected that the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate will continue to increase in September [12]. - Inventory: On September 18, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 137,531 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 981 tons (-0.7%). On September 19, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the GZEE were 39,484 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.2% [12]. - Cost: The ore price adjusts following the lithium salt price. On September 19, the quoted price of SMM's imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate was 810 - 850 US dollars per ton, a weekly increase of 3.75%. The supply pressure of high-cost hard rock mines in Africa has begun to ease recently. The lithium concentrate previously held back by Western Australian mining enterprises will be released, and it is expected that the subsequent import of lithium ore will be significantly supplemented [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - On September 19, the morning quote of the Mysteel MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was 72,987 yuan, with a weekly increase of 2.46%. The average price of MMLC battery-grade lithium carbonate was 73,250 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of the LC2511 contract on the GZEE was 73,960 yuan, with a weekly increase of 3.93% [20]. - The average discount in the standard electric carbon trading market of the exchange is about -200 yuan. The net short position of the main contract of lithium carbonate is about 120,000 lots [23]. - The price difference between battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan. The price difference between battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 550 yuan. In September, the lithium carbonate futures price declined, and the spot quotation adjustment of lithium hydroxide lagged, resulting in an inverted price difference [26]. 3.3. Supply Side - On September 18, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate by SMM was 20,363 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.0%. The weekly output of lithium carbonate from spodumene increased, driving the domestic weekly output of lithium carbonate to a new high. In August 2025, the domestic output of lithium carbonate was 85,240 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.6%, a year-on-year increase of 39.5%, and the cumulative year-on-year increase in the first eight months was 40.4% [31]. - In August, the output of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 53,330 tons, a month-on-month increase of 19.0% and a year-on-year increase of 83.3%. The cumulative year-on-year increase in the first eight months was 71.1%. The output of lithium carbonate from lepidolite in August was 13,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 23.9%, and the cumulative year-on-year increase in the first eight months was 17.5% [34]. - In August, the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased by 11.5% month-on-month to 10,920 tons, and the cumulative year-on-year increase from January to August was 10.8%. Some salt lakes reduced production or stopped production, and the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes declined year-on-year during the peak season. The output of lithium carbonate from the recycling end in August was 7,290 tons, a month-on-month increase of 14.3%, and the cumulative year-on-year increase from January to August was 21.3% [37]. - In July 2025, China imported 13,845 tons of lithium carbonate, a month-on-month decrease of 21.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 42.7%. Among them, 8,584 tons were imported from Chile and 3,950 tons from Argentina. From January to July, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 132,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. In July 2025, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was 20,900 tons, a month-on-month increase of 43% and a year-on-year increase of 4%. Among them, 13,600 tons were exported to China, a month-on-month increase of 33% and a year-on-year decrease of 13%. In August, Chile exported 16,903 tons of lithium carbonate, a month-on-month decrease of 19.2%. Among them, 12,982 tons were exported to China, a month-on-month decrease of 4.8% and a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [40]. 3.4. Demand Side - The battery sector dominates lithium demand, accounting for 87% of global consumption in 2024. The main growth point of future lithium salt consumption still depends on the growth of the lithium battery industry, while the traditional application sectors have limited proportion and weak growth. The proportion of lithium used in sectors such as ceramic glass, lubricants, flux powders, air conditioners, and medicine is only 5% [44]. - In August 2025, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles was about 1.7 million, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 23.7% from January to August. According to the CAAM, in August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 27.4% and 26.8% respectively. From January to August, the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively. The sales volume of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales volume of new vehicles [47]. - From January to July, the total sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe was 2.081 million, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%. From January to July, the total sales volume of new energy vehicles in the United States was 896,000, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [50]. - In August, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 139.6 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 4.4% and a year-on-year increase of 37.3%. From January to August, the cumulative output of power and other batteries in China was 970.7 GWh, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 54.3% [52]. - From January to August, the cumulative output of domestic lithium iron phosphate increased by 46.2% year-on-year, and the output of domestic ternary materials increased by 13.1% year-on-year [55]. 3.5. Inventory - On September 18, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 137,531 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 981 tons (-0.7%). On September 19, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the GZEE were 39,484 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.2% [62]. - The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The inventory-to-sales ratio of power batteries is at a recent median, and the inventory of energy storage batteries is at a recent low due to the rush for exports [65]. 3.6. Cost Side - The ore price adjusts following the lithium salt price. On September 19, the quoted price of SMM's imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate was 810 - 850 US dollars per ton, a weekly increase of 3.75% [73]. - In July, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 576,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% and a month-on-month increase of 34.7%. From January to July, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 3.38 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.6%. From January to July, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 7.3% year-on-year, and the import of lithium concentrate from Africa decreased by 13.7% year-on-year. The supply pressure of high-cost hard rock mines in Africa has begun to ease recently. The lithium concentrate previously held back by Western Australian mining enterprises will be released, and it is expected that the subsequent import of lithium ore will be significantly supplemented [76].