生猪周报：短空近月或反套-20250920

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current pig market shows a significant oversupply situation. Spot prices are falling rapidly due to large - scale group and散户 sales, and the future spot trend remains pessimistic. - The fundamentals in 2025 may be weaker than in 2024 due to the continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year. However, the expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction is strong, which may improve the supply situation next year. - Demand may improve marginally at the beginning and middle of September due to school openings, temperature drops, and festival preparations, but it will enter a slump after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches. - The short - term trend of the futures market is likely to remain weak. It is recommended to short the near - month contracts on rebounds and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks. [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: The oversupply has led to a spread of pessimistic sentiment, with domestic pig prices accelerating their decline last week. Group and散户 sales have increased supply pressure, and the future spot trend is still pessimistic. For example, the average price in Henan dropped by 0.5 yuan to 12.96 yuan/kg, in Sichuan by 0.84 yuan to 12.36 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong by 1.2 yuan to 13.36 yuan/kg. - Supply Side: In July, the official sow inventory was 40.42 million, 3.6% more than the normal level. The supply from September to November is expected to increase, but the weight reduction by group factories from June to August may partially offset the supply pressure. - Demand Side: Demand may improve marginally in early - mid September but will decline after the National Day. - Strategy: Maintain the idea of shorting near - month contracts and conducting reverse arbitrage. For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and short on rebounds for the 11 and 01 contracts. For arbitrage, conduct 3 - 5 and 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage. [11][13] 3.2. Spot - Futures Market - Spot Trend: The oversupply has led to a rapid decline in pig prices last week, with group and散户 sales increasing supply pressure. The future spot trend is pessimistic. - Basis and Spread Trend: The spot price has dropped significantly, the basis has declined, and the month - to - month spread follows the reverse arbitrage logic. - Prices of Piglets and Sows: No specific analysis of price trends is provided in the text, only relevant price charts are presented. [22][25] 3.3. Supply Side - Reproductive Sows and Changes: In July, the official sow inventory was 40.42 million, 10,000 less than the previous month but still 3.6% more than the normal level. The effectiveness of capacity reduction needs more evidence. - Inventory and Slaughter: From September to November, the basic supply will increase, but the weight reduction by group factories from June to August may partially offset the supply pressure. - Slaughter of Different - Sized Pigs: The proportion of small - pig slaughter has slightly increased, indicating a slight increase in pig diseases. The proportion of large - pig slaughter is not high, and attention should be paid to the fat - standard price difference. - Other Indicators: Slaughter volume is increasing month - on - month, and the weight of large - scale farms is starting to stabilize and rise, showing an oversupply situation. [33][42][45] 3.4. Demand Side - Demand may improve marginally in early - mid September due to school openings, temperature drops, and festival preparations. However, it will enter a slump after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches. [58] 3.5. Cost and Profit - Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost is continuously declining. However, pig prices are the weakest in the same period over the years, and the industry has suffered full - scale losses this year. [69] 3.6. Inventory Side - The frozen - product inventory is slowly rising. [74]