原油周报：价值修复并未结束-20250920

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite the complete dissipation of geopolitical premiums, the macro - environment is not bearish. Although OPEC has "in principle" started to lift a new round of production cuts, this is more of a test of the "vulnerability" of the current crude oil market by Middle Eastern officials. If the oil price center rises after one month, greater production increases are expected. Therefore, it is still a window for going long in the short term. The short - term oil price is relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts still perform well. The current oil price has presented a good opportunity for left - hand side layout, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will regain upward space [15][16] - Overall, the upward space for oil prices in the second half of the year is limited. As OPEC's gradual production increase is implemented, the wide - range oscillation center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. Since shale oil will still play a bottom - supporting role, it is difficult to have a continuous trend market, and grasping the driving rhythm will be more important [21] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: This week, crude oil continued its low - level oscillation pattern. The upper limit of the oil price was suppressed by macro - political factors, and the oil price fluctuations gradually converged, moving towards bottom consolidation and value restoration [15] - Supply - Demand Changes: OPEC discussed advancing the release of a 1.6 - million - barrel - per - day production cut plan at this meeting, and will start to lift the production cut (increase production) by 137,000 barrels per day in October. Russia announced a monthly production cut of 85,000 barrels per day from July to November and an additional cut of 9,000 barrels per day in December. It also supported extending the gasoline export ban until November. US refinery demand declined due to reduced imports, and shale oil maintained normal fluctuations. The overall crude oil fundamentals were relatively healthy, and the crack spread remained strong [15] - Macro - Political Factors: At the macro level, the US FOMC statement cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, restarting the interest - rate cuts that had been suspended since December last year. Powell said that this interest - rate cut was a risk - management - style cut. Overall, the Fed's statement on the subsequent interest - rate cut pace was neutral, and it believed that near - term inflation was high from the PCE perspective, but also acknowledged the risks in the labor market. Politically, the Iranian deputy foreign minister said that Europe's move to restart sanctions was an excuse to escalate the situation. The Caribbean Sea began to be monitored and surrounded by the US Navy, and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela was tense. The Russian foreign minister said that Russia was willing to continue communicating with the US, and Russia saw that the US also had the same intention [15] 3.2 Macro & Geopolitical - Short - Term High - Frequency Macro Indicators: The report presents charts of the US ISM manufacturing PMI, the Citigroup G10 economic surprise index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the US long - short - term spread in relation to the WTI oil price, which can be used to analyze the short - term impact of macro factors on oil prices [38] - Medium - Term Macro Forecast Indicators: The report includes charts of the euro - zone investment confidence index and the euro - zone PMI, the US investment confidence index and the US PMI, the US GDP growth rate forecast and the US crude oil consumption growth rate, and the GDP growth rate forecasts of major global countries, which can be used to predict the medium - term impact of macro factors on oil prices [44] - Geopolitical Indicators: The report shows charts of the Middle East geopolitical risk index and the high - frequency export statistics of sensitive oil from Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and Russia in relation to the WTI oil price, which can be used to analyze the impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices [47] 3.3 Oil Product Spreads - Forward Curve: The report provides charts of the WTI crude oil forward curve, the near - far structure of various crude oils, the WTI crude oil M1/M4 monthly spread, and the WTI crude oil M1 price, which can be used to analyze the forward price trends of crude oil [51] - Inter - regional Spreads: The report presents charts of INE/WTI, MRBN/WTI, Brent/WTI, and Brent/Dubai spreads, which can be used to analyze the price differences between different regions [56][58] - Product Spreads: The report includes charts of the LGO diesel forward curve, the near - far structure of refined oil products, RB/HO, and LGO/RB spreads, which can be used to analyze the price differences between different oil products [64][69] - Crack Spreads: The report provides charts of the crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Europe, and the US, which can be used to analyze the profitability of oil refining [74][77][80] 3.4 Crude Oil Supply - Supply from OPEC & OPEC+: OPEC has carried out a series of production cut and production increase plans. For example, in 2025, it advanced its oil production increase plan multiple times, and on September 7, it advanced the plan to lift production cuts, with a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in October. OPEC+ also issued a new production cut plan to make up for over - production, with a monthly production cut of 189,000 - 435,000 barrels per day until June 2026. The report also presents the production, quota, and idle capacity of OPEC and OPEC+ countries, as well as the supply and export volume forecasts of OPEC 12 countries and OPEC+ major member countries [86][88][92] - Supply from the US: The US Treasury announced the most severe sanctions on Iran since 2018. The SPR funds were significantly cut from $1.3 billion to $171 million. The US announced a series of policies and statements, including providing defensive weapons to Ukraine, expressing satisfaction with the $64/barrel oil price, hoping that China and India would buy more US crude oil, and considering lifting sanctions on Venezuela. The US also had some policies related to refinery profit caps and trade issues [118][119]