甲醇周报：港口库存再创新高，盘面增仓下跌-20250920

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market remains under pressure due to high inventory levels, with prices mainly driven by news rather than showing a clear trend. Although there are potential positive factors on the overseas supply - side, the current high - inventory situation persists. - The supply - side shows a decline in operating rates, while enterprises still enjoy good profits. The demand - side has seen an improvement, with port olefin plants restarting and most traditional demand sectors increasing their operating rates, but profit margins remain low. - Given the complex fundamentals with both positive and negative factors, and the significant influence of overall commodity sentiment on methanol prices, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: The futures price continued to decline this week, with a rebound on Friday due to news of gas restrictions in Iran. The port inventory reached a new high, the 1 - 5 spread recovered after a sharp drop on Thursday, and the basis strengthened. - Supply: The domestic operating rate was 79.91%, a 5.52% week - on - week decrease. The overseas operating rate was 69.71% and decreased week - on - week. There are rumors that Iran will restrict industrial natural gas supply to methanol plants in October, and port coal prices have stabilized and rebounded. - Demand: Port olefin plants resumed operation, with an operating rate of 83.24%, an 18.55% week - on - week increase, reaching a high level. Among traditional demand sectors, the operating rates of formaldehyde and acetic acid decreased slightly, while others increased, leading to a slight recovery in overall demand. - Fundamentals and Valuation: The futures price declined, the basis strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread recovered after a sharp drop, remaining at a low level compared to the same period last year. Spot prices weakened, and corporate profits declined from high levels. MTO profits also decreased, and traditional demand profits were generally low. Methanol valuation is moderately high. - Inventory: Port inventory was 155.78 tons, a 0.75 - ton week - on - week increase, reaching a new high. Enterprise inventory was 34.05 tons, a 0.25 - ton week - on - week decrease, and enterprise orders to be shipped were 23.38 tons, a 1.69 - ton week - on - week decrease. - Market Logic: The current situation is characterized by high inventory, and the market is focused on potential positive factors on the overseas supply - side. - Strategy: It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Contracts: The prices of the 09, 01, and 05 contracts were 2346, 2361, and 2381 respectively. The 09 contract increased by 116 compared to the previous week, while the 01 and 05 contracts decreased by 18 and 4 respectively. - Spot Market: Prices in most domestic regions decreased, with Jiangsu, Fujian, and other regions seeing price drops, while Anhui and Hebei had price increases. - Downstream Products: The prices of some downstream products such as acetic acid and MTBE increased, while formaldehyde prices decreased. - International Prices: CFR prices in most regions remained unchanged, with only a slight change in CFR India. The import profit of methanol was - 129.4, a 0.67 increase compared to the previous week [12]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The open interest of methanol futures increased significantly [22]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - Raw Material Prices: Coal prices stopped falling and stabilized. - Production Profit: There are charts showing the profit calculations of coal - based and gas - based methanol production in different regions. - Inventory: Port inventory continued to increase, while factory inventory was at a relatively low level compared to the same period [26][41][43]. 3.4. Supply Side - Capacity: New methanol production capacity is expected to be put into operation in the second half of 2025, with a total of 745 tons of new capacity from several enterprises in the northwest region. - Upstream Production and Operating Rate: The domestic and overseas methanol operating rates showed a downward trend. - Import Volume: There are charts showing the import volume and its year - on - year changes from countries such as Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. - Arrival Volume: Charts show the arrival volume of methanol in China, the eastern region, and the southern region. - International and Regional Price Spreads: There are charts showing import profit, international price spreads, and regional price spreads [49][54][59][68][72]. 3.5. Demand Side - Demand Projection: There are charts showing methanol consumption and ending inventory. - Methanol - to - Olefins: Port olefin plants resumed operation, and the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins increased. - PP Production Profit: There are charts showing the production profits of PP in different production processes. - MTO - Related Price Spreads: There are charts showing various MTO - related price spreads. - Other Downstream Products: There are charts showing the operating rates and profits of products such as acetic acid, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether [87][90][92][95]. 3.6. Options - Related - There are charts showing the open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, trading volume PCR, and volatility of methanol options [117][119]. 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - There are charts showing the methanol industry chain and the research framework analysis mind - map [122][124].