螺纹钢周报：需求修复乏力，关注政策动向-20250920

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is favorable, with the prices of finished steel products continuing to fluctuate in a moderately strong manner. Overseas, after the Fed's interest - rate meeting, the monetary policy stance is cautious, and a preventive rate cut has begun. In the short term, market sentiment has cooled slightly; in the long term, global liquidity easing is expected to drive a manufacturing recovery, indirectly boosting steel demand. [11][12] - In China, economic data in August slowed down and fell short of expectations, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales performance remains weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. Exports showed a slight decline last week and are in a weak and volatile state. [11][12] - Fundamentally, the output of rebar has declined, apparent demand has increased slightly, and inventory pressure has marginally eased; the output of hot - rolled coils has increased, apparent demand is neutral, and inventory has slightly accumulated. Currently, the demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and the peak - season demand is lackluster. Overall, although the traditional peak season has arrived, the demand for rebar remains weak, and while hot - rolled coils have some resilience, they are still weak overall. If the demand cannot be effectively restored in the future, steel prices may still face a downward risk. Attention should be paid to the policy trends of the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session. [11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - side - Production volume: This week, the total rebar output was 2.06 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.59% and a year - on - year increase of 9.86%. The cumulative output was 81.1297 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.04%. The long - process output was 1.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.63% and a year - on - year increase of 7.69%. The short - process output was 0.27 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.30% and a year - on - year increase of 27.04%. [6] - Capacity utilization: This week, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 90% (unchanged from the previous value), and the electric - furnace capacity utilization rate was 54%, down from 55% in the previous period. [53] - Hot - metal output: The average daily hot - metal output this week was 2.41 million tons, the same as the previous value. [58] - Regional output: The rebar output in the northern region was 0.4 million tons (down from 0.45 million tons in the previous period), and in the southern region was 0.83 million tons (up from 0.8 million tons in the previous period). The output in East China was 0.83 million tons, including 0.35 million tons in Jiangsu, 0.08 million tons in Shandong, and 0.18 million tons in Anhui. The output in Guangdong was 0.23 million tons, and in Guangxi was 0.08 million tons. [61][64][67] 3.2 Demand - side - Apparent demand: This week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1 million tons, compared with 1.98 million tons in the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 6.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%. The cumulative demand was 78.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. [7] - Building - material trading volume: The trading volume of building materials was 117,741 tons (up from 105,098 tons last week), and the trading volume of building materials in Shanghai was 18,400 tons (unchanged from last week). [70] - Regional trading volume: The trading volume of construction steel for mainstream traders in the northern region was 20,465 tons, and in Beijing was 8,120 tons. In East China, it was 35,531 tons, including 4,970 tons in Shanghai and 4,900 tons in Hangzhou. In the southern region, it was 31,840 tons, and in Guangzhou was 5,000 tons. In Chengdu, it was 2,620 tons, in Chongqing was 5,000 tons, and in Xi'an was 2,300 tons. [72][73][76] - Consumption volume: The weekly consumption volume of rebar was 2.1 million tons, with 0.87 million tons in East China, 0.34 million tons in Southwest China, 0.26 million tons in South China, 0.11 million tons in North China, 0.19 million tons in Central China, 0.17 million tons in Northeast China, and 0.13 million tons in Northwest China. [78][80][83] - Related prices and trade: The price of cement (P.O 42.5) in Hangzhou was 465 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 455 yuan/ton. [85] 3.3 Profit - Furnace profit: The blast - furnace profit for rebar in East China remained around 22 yuan/ton, and the on - the - spot profit increased slightly. The profit during off - peak electricity hours was - 33 yuan/ton, and the price performance was neutral. [6] - Electric - furnace profit: The average profit of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills was - 130 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton compared with last week. The blast - furnace profit for rebar was 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton compared with last week. [9][39] - Cost: The cost of hot - metal was 2,625 yuan/ton, the cost of scrap steel delivered to the factory was 2,257 yuan/ton, and the average cost of hot - metal for 64 steel mills was 2,625 yuan/ton. [9][47] 3.4 Inventory - Total inventory: This week, the social inventory of rebar was 4.85 million tons (down from 4.87 million tons in the previous period), a week - on - week decrease of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 36.3%. The factory inventory was 1.65 million tons (down from 1.67 million tons in the previous period), a week - on - week decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 20.0%. The total inventory was 6.5 million tons (down from 6.54 million tons in the previous period), a week - on - week decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 31.7%. The inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.22 million tons, down from 1.29 million tons in the previous period. [8][88][90] - Regional inventory: The social inventory of rebar in 132 cities was 6.9 million tons, in East China was 3.29 million tons, in Hangzhou was 0.96 million tons, and in Shanghai was 0.37 million tons. In South China, it was 0.72 million tons, in North China was 0.99 million tons, in Guangzhou was 0.18 million tons, and in Beijing was 0.46 million tons. In Central China, it was 0.51 million tons, in Northwest China was 0.5 million tons, in Wuhan was 0.2 million tons, and in Xi'an was 0.22 million tons. In Southwest China, it was 0.62 million tons, in Northeast China was 0.59 million tons, in Chengdu was 0.23 million tons, and in Chongqing was 0.17 million tons. [93][96][99][102] 3.5期现市场 - Price and basis: The lowest - warehouse - receipt basis was 28 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 0.9%. The basis for the 01 contract was 9 yuan/ton, the 05 contract was - 48 yuan/ton, and the 10 contract was 102 yuan/ton. [10][20] - Spread: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts of rebar was - 57 yuan/ton, between the 05 and 10 contracts was 150 yuan/ton, and between the 10 and 01 contracts was - 93 yuan/ton. The Beijing rebar - hot - rolled coil spread was 290 yuan/ton (up from 250 yuan/ton last week), the Shanghai spread was 140 yuan/ton (down from 190 yuan/ton last week), and the Guangzhou spread was 60 yuan/ton (down from 100 yuan/ton last week). The Shanghai - Beijing rebar spread was 70 yuan/ton (up from 40 yuan/ton last week), and the Guangzhou - Shanghai spread was - 7 yuan/ton (up from - 37 yuan/ton last week). The Beijing premium for spiral rebar was 150 yuan/ton (up from 140 yuan/ton last week), the Shanghai premium was 130 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week), and the Guangzhou premium was 160 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week). [22][25][28][30] - Other prices: The price of billets (20MnSi) in Tangshan was 3,130 yuan/ton, the aggregated price of rebar (HRB400E, Φ20) in Beijing was 3,170 yuan/ton, the FOB export price of rebar in China was 471 US dollars/ton, the CFR import price of rebar in Southeast Asia was 470 US dollars/ton, in the United States was 985 US dollars/ton, in the EU was 605 US dollars/ton, and the CFR import price of rebar from the UAE in the Middle East was 640 US dollars/ton. The lowest spot price of rebar was 3,156 yuan/ton, the lowest spot price of coke was 1,438 yuan/ton, and the lowest spot price of iron ore was 936 yuan/ton. [33][36] 3.6 Trading Strategy Suggestion No trading strategy suggestions were provided in the report. [13]