锌周报：降息落地，产业现状偏弱-20250920

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The zinc ore's domestic TC has stopped rising, and although the imported TC continues to increase, the low Shanghai-London ratio may significantly slow down the upward rate of the imported TC, alleviating the oversupply of zinc ore. China's zinc ingot social inventory is still in an accumulation trend, while the LME zinc ingot inventory overseas continues to decline, and the Shanghai-London ratio continues to weaken. On the early morning of September 18th, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the monetary policy statement was less dovish than the market expected, cooling the sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will operate weakly in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - Price Review: Last Friday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.01% at 22,049 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 236,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME zinc 3S fell 2 to $2,919/ton compared to the same period the previous day, with a total position of 213,400 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 21,990 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of -65 yuan/ton, Tianjin basis of -65 yuan/ton, Guangdong basis of -80 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai-Guangdong spread of 15 yuan/ton [11]. - Domestic Structure: According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals data, China's social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly to 158,500 tons. The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 52,500 tons, with an internal Shanghai basis of -65 yuan/ton and a spread of 5 yuan/ton between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract. - Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 48,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 17,500 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was $24.27/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $46.51/ton. - Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai-London ratio on the disk was 1.064, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -3,119.55 yuan/ton. - Industry Data: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 111 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 315,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 647,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.05%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 367,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 53.78%, with a raw material inventory of 12,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.11%, with a raw material inventory of 3,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 5,000 tons [11]. 3.2 Macro - analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfinished orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - Zinc Ore Supply: In July 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 346,800 metal tons, a year - on - year change of -5.68% and a month - on - month change of 7.53%. From January to July, the total zinc ore output was 2,080,500 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -2.27%. The net import of zinc ore in July was 501,400 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 37.8% and a month - on - month change of 52.0%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 3,034,800 dry tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 46.2%. The total domestic zinc ore supply in July was 572,400 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 7.7% and a month - on - month change of 21.5%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 3,446,200 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.5% [25][27]. - Zinc Ingot Supply: In August 2025, the zinc ingot output was 626,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 28.8% and a month - on - month change of 3.9%. From January to August, the total zinc ingot output was 4,469,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.5%. The net import of zinc ingots in July was 20,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 9.6% and a month - on - month change of -46.8%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 216,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -15.1%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply in July was 623,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 22.6% and a month - on - month change of 0.0%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 4,059,300 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.4% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - Initial - stage Operating Rates: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.05%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 367,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 53.78%, with a raw material inventory of 12,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.11%, with a raw material inventory of 3,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 5,000 tons [40]. - Apparent Demand: In July 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 595,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 7.0% and a month - on - month change of -2.0%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 3,971,100 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.3% [42]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - Domestic Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance: In July 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 27,200 tons. From January to July, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 88,200 tons [53]. - Overseas Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance: In June 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a shortage of -42,600 tons. From January to June, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 7,000 tons [56]. 3.6 Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals data, China's social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly to 158,500 tons. The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 52,500 tons, with an internal Shanghai basis of -65 yuan/ton and a spread of 5 yuan/ton between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract [61]. - Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 48,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 17,500 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was $24.27/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $46.51/ton [64]. - Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai-London ratio on the disk was 1.064, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -3,119.55 yuan/ton [67]. - Position Analysis: The net short position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai zinc decreased slightly, the net long position of investment funds in London zinc increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, it is neutral [70].