国债周报：基本面偏弱，债市维持震荡-20250920

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data in August was slightly lower than expected, with both supply and demand sides showing a decline. The "anti-involution" policy boosted price expectations, but the coordination between demand and production needs further observation. Exports may face pressure due to the overdrawn pre-export effect and the rising base in the second half of the year. The US cut interest rates in September, and the subsequent degree of easing depends on inflation changes caused by tariffs [10]. - The central bank's attitude towards capital support remains unchanged, and overall, it is expected that the capital will remain loose in the future. Against the background of weak domestic demand recovery and the expectation of continued loose capital, interest rates may have downward space, but the short-term trend of the bond market will be mainly volatile, considering the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds [12]. - The fundamentals of the bond market still need improvement. The downward adjustment space of the bond market is limited. In the long term, the bond market should be considered for buying on dips [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Economic and Policy Situation: In August, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month. The service industry production index increased by 5.6% year-on-year. The total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.9668 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.17%. From January to August, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3.26111 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. Excluding real estate development investment, the national fixed asset investment increased by 4.2%. The central bank will issue central bank bills in Hong Kong on September 22. From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 1.48198 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. The stamp duty was 28.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.4%, and the securities transaction stamp duty was 11.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.7%. The central bank adjusted the 14-day reverse repurchase operation. The US Senate confirmed the appointment of Stephen Milan to the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September [10][11]. - Liquidity: This week, the central bank conducted 1.8268 trillion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchases, 60 billion yuan of 6-month outright reverse repurchases, and 15 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposits. There were 1.2645 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposits due. The net investment this week was 119.23 billion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.51% [12]. - Interest Rates: The latest 10-year treasury bond yield closed at 1.88%, a week-on-week increase of 1.38 basis points; the 30-year treasury bond yield closed at 2.20%, a week-on-week increase of 1.75 basis points. The latest 10-year US treasury bond yield was 4.14%, a week-on-week increase of 8.00 basis points [12]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips for a single-sided strategy, with a profit-loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended period of 6 months. The core driving logic is loose monetary policy and the difficulty of credit improvement [14]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Contract Performance: Presented the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS and TF, T and TL contracts [17][20][25][28][31][34]. 3. Main Economic Data - Domestic Economy - GDP and PMI: In the second quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations. In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, and the service industry PMI was 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous value [43]. - Manufacturing PMI Sub-items: In August, both supply and demand in the manufacturing industry improved. Industries such as medicine and computer communication and electronic equipment had higher production and new order indexes than the overall manufacturing PMI, while industries such as textile and clothing, wood processing and furniture, and chemical raw materials and chemicals were below the boom-bust line [49]. - Price Indexes: In August, the CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, the core CPI increased by 0.9% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year. On a month-on-month basis, the CPI, core CPI, and PPI were all flat. The month-on-month decline in CPI was mainly driven by the decline in consumer prices such as pork and vegetables, while the year-on-year and month-on-month improvement in PPI was driven by the "anti-involution" policy, but the sustainability of price recovery needs the coordination of supply and demand [50]. - Export Data: In August, China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 4.4% year-on-year, and imports increased by 1.3% year-on-year. Exports to the US decreased by 33% year-on-year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a high growth rate of 23% year-on-year [53]. - Industrial and Consumption Data: In August, the industrial added value increased by 5.2% year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, showing a slowdown in growth [56]. - Investment and Real Estate Data: From January to August, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment was 0.5%, and the real estate investment growth rate was -12.9%. In August, the second-hand housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 0.6% month-on-month and 5.5% year-on-year. The cumulative new construction area of housing decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, and the cumulative new construction area decreased by 9.3% year-on-year. The completion data in August decreased by 21.26% year-on-year, and the sales data of new houses in 30 large and medium-sized cities weakened recently [59][62][65]. - Foreign Economy - US Economy: In the second quarter, the US GDP increased by 1.99% year-on-year and 3.0% quarter-on-quarter. In August, the CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, the core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year. The durable goods orders in July were 302.8 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 3.26%. In August, the non-farm payrolls increased by 22,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%. The ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, and the non-manufacturing PMI was 52 [68][71][74]. - EU Economy: In the second quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.5% year-on-year and 0.2% quarter-on-quarter [74]. - Eurozone Economy: In August, the preliminary CPI in the eurozone increased by 2.1% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, and the core CPI increased by 2.3% year-on-year. The manufacturing PMI was 50.7, and the service industry PMI was 50.5 [77]. 4. Liquidity - Money Supply and Social Financing: In August, the M1 growth rate was 5.6%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.8%. The social financing increment in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 460 billion yuan. The new RMB loans were 2.06 trillion yuan. The social financing mainly came from the growth of government bonds, and the support of government bonds for the year-on-year growth of social financing may weaken in the future. The financing demand of the real sector remains weak, but the short-term corporate bonds increased by 260 billion yuan year-on-year, showing some improvement [82]. - Central Bank Operations: In August, the MLF balance was 5.55 trillion yuan, and the net investment of MLF was 300 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted a net investment of 119.23 billion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.51% [88]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Interest Rate Changes: Presented the latest interest rates, daily, weekly, and monthly changes of various types of bonds and repurchase rates, including R001, R007, DR001, DR007, 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bond yields, and 10-year US treasury bond yields [91]. - Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Charts: Presented the trends of treasury bond yields, interbank pledged repurchase rates, US treasury bond yields, UK, French, German, and Italian treasury bond yields, the Federal Reserve target interest rate, and exchange rates [95][98][100].