工业硅、多晶硅周报：工业硅相对估值修复，多晶硅震荡延续-20250920

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand sides have no significant changes. The production has slowed down after weeks of growth but remains at a relatively high level. Downstream demand from polysilicon and organic silicon can support it in the short - term. The inventory is high with limited marginal reduction. The relative valuation is low compared to polysilicon, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term, with subsequent focus on supply - demand improvement and policy changes [16]. - For polysilicon, the price continues to oscillate. The market focuses on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer. The inventory reduction space is limited, and the price may experience a phased decline before the policy is implemented. Attention should be paid to position and risk control [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Demand: Polysilicon weekly output is 31,300 tons, DMC output is 48,600 tons (down 300 tons week - on - week), 1 - 8 month aluminum alloy cumulative output is 12.324 billion tons (up 2.163 billion tons or 21.29% year - on - year), and 1 - 7 month industrial silicon cumulative net export is 409,400 tons (up 5,400 tons or 1.33% year - on - year) [14]. - Inventory: Industrial silicon inventory is 692,000 tons (down 2,400 tons week - on - week), including factory inventory of 257,600 tons (down 3,800 tons), market inventory of 185,000 tons (up 2,000 tons), and registered warehouse receipt inventory of 249,400 tons (down 600 tons) [14][15]. - Price: As of September 19, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China is 9,100 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week), 421 is 9,600 yuan/ton (equivalent to a futures price of 8,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the futures main contract (SI2511) closes at 9,305 yuan/ton (up 560 yuan/ton) [15]. - Cost: The average production cost in Xinjiang is 8,458.33 yuan/ton, Yunnan is 9,393.75 yuan/ton, Sichuan is 9,090.48 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia is 9,000 yuan/ton [15]. - Supply: The weekly output of industrial silicon is 94,700 tons (down 800 tons week - on - week) [15]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Industrial Silicon: As of September 19, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China is 9,100 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week), 421 is 9,600 yuan/ton (equivalent to a futures price of 8,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the futures main contract (SI2511) closes at 9,305 yuan/ton (up 560 yuan/ton) [23]. - Polysilicon: As of September 19, 2025, the average price of SMM - statistical N - type polysilicon re -投料 is 52.65 yuan/kg (up 1.1 yuan/kg week - on - week), N - type dense material is 51.15 yuan/kg (up 1.1 yuan/kg week - on - week), and the futures main contract (PS2511) closes at 52,700 yuan/ton (down 910 yuan/ton). The basis of the main contract is - 50 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of - 0.09% [26]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon - Total Output: As of September 19, 2025, the weekly output is 94,700 tons (down 800 tons week - on - week). In August 2025, the output is 370,500 tons (up 49,300 tons month - on - month), and the cumulative output from January to August is down 538,600 tons or 17.44% year - on - year [31]. - Production in Main Producing Areas: No specific quantitative changes in the main producing areas are mentioned other than the overall production [30][33][35]. - Production Cost: As of September 19, 2025, the electricity price and silica price in the main producing areas are flat week - on - week. The average production cost in Xinjiang is 8,458.33 yuan/ton, Yunnan is 9,393.75 yuan/ton, Sichuan is 9,090.48 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia is 9,000 yuan/ton [43][46]. - Visible Inventory: As of September 19, 2025, the industrial silicon inventory is 692,000 tons (down 2,400 tons week - on - week), including factory inventory of 257,600 tons (down 3,800 tons), market inventory of 185,000 tons (up 2,000 tons), and registered warehouse receipt inventory of 249,400 tons (down 600 tons) [49]. 3.4 Polysilicon - Output: As of September 19, 2025, the weekly output is 31,300 tons (basically flat week - on - week), close to the same period in 2024. In August, the output is 131,700 tons (up 25,400 tons month - on - month), and the cumulative output from January to August is 811,100 tons (down 36.67% year - on - year) [54]. - Operating Rate and Scheduling: In August, the operating rate is 45.78% (up 6.55 percentage points month - on - month). SMM predicts the output in September to be 126,700 tons, with a decreasing operating rate [57]. - Inventory: As of September 19, 2025, the factory inventory is 242,100 tons (Bai Chuan Ying Fu's statistics), and the SMM - statistical inventory is 204,000 tons [60]. - Cost and Profit: As of September 19, 2025, the production cost is 41,405.50 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is 9,194.50 yuan/ton [63]. - Silicon Wafer: The weekly output is 13.92GW (slightly up week - on - week), the output in August is 56.04GW (up 3.29GW month - on - month), and the cumulative output from January to August is 429.12GW (down 8.77% year - on - year). The inventory is 16.87GW (slightly up week - on - week), and the predicted output in September is 57.53GW (slightly up) [66][69]. - Battery Cell: The output in August is 58.27GW (up 0.08GW month - on - month), and the operating rate is 56.89% (down 2.17 percentage points month - on - month). The cumulative output from January to August is 446.87GW (up 0.96% year - on - year). The inventory is 5.94GW (recovering), and the predicted output in September is 60.04GW (slightly up) [74][77]. - Module: The output in August is 49.2GW (up 2.1GW month - on - month), and the operating rate is 49.09% (up 3.17 percentage points month - on - month). The cumulative output from January to August is 379.6GW (up 1.31% year - on - year). The inventory is 34.5GW (slightly up), and the predicted output in September is 50.3GW (higher than August) [82][85]. 3.5 Organic Silicon - Output: As of September 19, 2025, the DMC output is 48,600 tons (down 300 tons week - on - week). In August, the output is 219,600 tons (up 13,100 tons month - on - month), and the cumulative output from January to August is 1.653 billion tons (up 17.58% year - on - year) [92]. - Price and Profit: As of September 19, 2025, the average price of organic silicon is 10,800 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the DMC gross profit is - 1,959.38 yuan/ton [95]. - Inventory: As of September 19, 2025, the DMC inventory is 45,800 tons (down 1,500 tons week - on - week) [98]. 3.6 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Export - Aluminum Alloy: As of September 19, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 is 21,220 yuan/ton (down 250 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20,920 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton week - on - week). The cumulative output from January to August is 12.324 billion tons (up 2.163 billion tons or 21.29% year - on - year). The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy is 57.4%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy is 55.9% [103][106]. - Export: From January to July, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon is 409,400 tons (up 5,400 tons or 1.33% year - on - year) [109].