股指周报：持续上涨后，波动加剧-20250920

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report After a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have recently shown differences, with funds switching between high - and low - level stocks and rapid rotation. Market risk appetite has decreased, and combined with the shrinking market trading volume, the short - term index faces certain adjustment pressure. However, in the long run, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the main idea is to go long on dips [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Important News: Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued policies to expand service consumption; Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Madrid; the State Administration for Market Regulation investigated NVIDIA for antitrust violations; the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points; NVIDIA announced a $5 billion investment in Intel [10]. - Economic and Corporate Earnings: In August, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% year - on - year; the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; M1 growth rate was 6.0%, and M2 was 8.8%; social financing increment was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 463 billion yuan; exports increased by 4.4% year - on - year, and imports by 1.3% [10]. - Interest Rate and Credit Environment: This week, the 10 - year Treasury bond rate rebounded slightly, the credit bond rate declined, the credit spread narrowed, and the liquidity remained loose [10]. - Trading Strategy Recommendations: Hold a small number of IM long positions in the long term as the valuation is at a moderately low level and IM has long - term discounts; hold IF long positions for six months as a new interest - rate cut cycle has started and high - dividend assets are expected to benefit [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Stock Index Performance: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.30% to 3820.09 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.14% to 13070.86 points; the ChiNext Index rose 2.34% to 3091.00 points, etc [14]. - Futures Contract Performance: For example, IF current - month contract fell 0.35% to 4510.0 points, and IM current - month contract rose 0.64% to 7448.0 points [15]. 3. Economic and Corporate Earnings - Economic Indicators: In Q2 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 5.2%; in August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%; the consumption growth rate was 3.4%; the export increased by 4.4% year - on - year; the investment growth rate was 0.5% [37][40][43]. - Corporate Earnings: In the 2025 semi - annual report, the year - on - year growth rate of operating income was flat, and the year - on - year growth rate of net profit was 2.5% [46]. 4. Interest Rate and Credit Environment - Interest Rates: The 10 - year Treasury bond rate rebounded slightly, and the credit bond rate declined [10]. - Credit Environment: In August 2025, the M1 growth rate was 6.0%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.8%; the social financing increment was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 463 billion yuan [62]. 5. Capital Flow - Inflow: This week, 235.81 billion shares of equity - oriented funds were newly established, and the margin trading balance increased by nearly 507.88 billion yuan to 23857.28 billion yuan [70][73]. - Outflow: This week, major shareholders had a net increase of - 110.7 billion yuan in holdings, and the number of IPO approvals was 2 [76]. 6. Valuation - Price - Earnings Ratio (TTM): The Shanghai 50 was 11.58, the CSI 300 was 13.96, the CSI 500 was 34.20, and the CSI 1000 was 47.10 [80]. - Price - to - Book Ratio (LF): The Shanghai 50 was 1.26, the CSI 300 was 1.45, the CSI 500 was 2.27, and the CSI 1000 was 2.50 [80].