Report on Glass 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market sentiment showed a trend of first declining and then rising during the week. Driven by the strengthening of futures, local trading improved slightly. However, the overall terminal demand remained weak, with downstream procurement being cautious and a strong wait - and - see sentiment. On the supply side, there were limited adjustments to production lines, and the market supply was relatively abundant. Enterprises mostly maintained stable prices for shipments, with actual transactions flexibly adjusted. Regional inventory performance was significantly differentiated, with better destocking effects in East, Central, South, and Northwest China, while North and Southwest China still faced certain inventory accumulation pressure. Fundamentally, the market lacked unilateral driving factors, and the price fluctuation range was limited. From a trading perspective, the trading volume and open interest decreased this week, and the willingness of funds to enter the market was not strong, but the price center continued to rise. As the "Golden September and Silver October" period approaches, the trading volume is expected to form support at low levels, and it is advisable to try long positions at low levels with a light position [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of September 20, 2025, the spot market quotation of float glass was 1,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1,208 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton from the previous week; the basis was - 58 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous week. The 01 - 05 spread of glass was - 125 yuan/ton (- 25), the 05 - 09 spread was - 60 yuan/ton (- 357), the 09 - 01 spread was 185 yuan/ton (+ 382), and the open interest reached 1.9181 million lots [13]. - Cost - profit: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 164.84 yuan/ton, up 9.29 yuan/ton from the previous week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3,900 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was 94.03 yuan/ton, down 6.37 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was 41.37 yuan/ton, up 11.43 yuan/ton from the previous week [13]. - Supply: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112,122.5 tons, unchanged from the previous week, with 225 operating production lines, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.01% [13]. - Demand: As of September 20, 2025, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 10.4 days, up 0.85 days from the previous week; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 47.10%, down 1.00% from the previous week. According to WIND data, from January to August 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 573.0392 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.70%; in August alone, the sales area of commercial housing was 57.4415 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.98%. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in August, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.8154 million and 2.8566 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.96% and 16.44% respectively; from January to August, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 21.051 million and 21.128 million respectively [13]. - Inventory: As of September 20, 2025, the in - factory inventory of national float glass was 60.908 million heavy boxes, down 675,000 heavy boxes from the previous week; the in - factory inventory in the Shahe area was 3.0448 million heavy boxes, up 388,800 heavy boxes from the previous week [13]. 02. Futures and Spot Market - Glass Basis: As of September 20, 2025, the spot market quotation of float glass was 1,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1,208 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton from the previous week; the basis was - 58 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous week [19]. - Glass Inter - monthly Spread: As of September 20, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of glass was - 125 yuan/ton (- 25), the 05 - 09 spread was - 60 yuan/ton (- 357), the 09 - 01 spread was 185 yuan/ton (+ 382), and the open interest reached 1.9181 million lots [22]. 03. Profit and Cost - Float Glass Profit and Cost: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 164.84 yuan/ton, up 9.29 yuan/ton from the previous week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3,900 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was 94.03 yuan/ton, down 6.37 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was 41.37 yuan/ton, up 11.43 yuan/ton from the previous week [29][32]. 04. Supply and Demand - Glass Production and Operating Rate: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112,122.5 tons, unchanged from the previous week, with 225 operating production lines, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.01% [37]. - Glass Demand: As of September 20, 2025, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 10.4 days, up 0.85 days from the previous week; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 47.10%, down 1.00% from the previous week. According to WIND data, from January to August 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 573.0392 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.70%; in August alone, the sales area of commercial housing was 57.4415 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.98%. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in August, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.8154 million and 2.8566 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.96% and 16.44% respectively; from January to August, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 21.051 million and 21.128 million respectively [40][43][46]. 05. Inventory - Inventory: As of September 20, 2025, the in - factory inventory of national float glass was 60.908 million heavy boxes, down 675,000 heavy boxes from the previous week; the in - factory inventory in the Shahe area was 3.0448 million heavy boxes, up 388,800 heavy boxes from the previous week [51]. Report on Soda Ash 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View On the supply side, it was generally stable. Some plants such as Anhui Hongsifang and Hubei Xindu resumed production one after another, but short - term local shutdowns for maintenance still led to a slight contraction in the industry's operating load, and the overall supply showed narrow - range fluctuations. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement. The pre - holiday stocking willingness of some enterprises gradually increased, and they replenished inventory in moderation at low prices, driving the enterprise inventory to show a downward trend. Some manufacturers' orders were basically fully signed, and the mentality of stabilizing prices was strengthened. However, the current industry supply was still at a relatively high level, and the absolute inventory level was still relatively high, so the upward driving force of the fundamentals was still limited. From a trading perspective, the trading volume this week was small, and an effective breakthrough could not be formed. The form was relatively loose, and it was still in a volatile market. It was recommended to be cautious [63]. 3. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of September 20, 2025, the spot market quotation of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,216 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous week; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1,306 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous week; the basis was - 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. As of September 20, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 91 yuan/ton (- 16), the 05 - 09 spread was - 46 yuan/ton (- 244), the 09 - 01 spread was 137 yuan/ton (+ 260), and the open interest reached 1.9181 million lots [62]. - Cost - profit: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.75 yuan/ton, down 0.45 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 108.5 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of September 20, 2025, the price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 700 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3,900 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous week [62]. - Supply: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 74,570 tons, down 1,540 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.53%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41,770 tons, down 400 tons from the previous week; the output of light soda ash was 32,800 tons, down 1,140 tons from the previous week [62]. - Demand: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112,122.5 tons, unchanged from the previous week, with 225 operating production lines, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.01%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in July reached 3.01 million tons [62]. - Inventory: As of September 20, 2025, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7556 million tons, down 41,900 tons from the previous week; the inventory available days were 14.56 days, down 0.34 days from the previous week. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 100,610 tons, down 2,840 tons from the previous week; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 74,950 tons, down 1,350 tons from the previous week [62]. 02. Futures and Spot Market - Soda Ash Basis: As of September 20, 2025, the spot market quotation of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,216 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous week; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1,306 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous week; the basis was - 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [68]. - Soda Ash Inter - monthly Spread: As of September 20, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 91 yuan/ton (- 16), the 05 - 09 spread was - 46 yuan/ton (- 244), the 09 - 01 spread was 137 yuan/ton (+ 260), and the open interest reached 1.9181 million lots [71]. 03. Profit and Cost - Soda Ash Profit: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.75 yuan/ton, down 0.45 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 108.5 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous week [79]. - Raw Material Cost: As of September 20, 2025, the price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 700 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3,900 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of raw salt in Northwest China was 205 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,150 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [82][85]. 04. Supply and Demand - Soda Ash Production: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 74,570 tons, down 1,540 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.53%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41,770 tons, down 400 tons from the previous week; the output of light soda ash was 32,800 tons, down 1,140 tons from the previous week [90][93]. - Soda Ash Demand: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112,122.5 tons, unchanged from the previous week, with 225 operating production lines, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.01%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in July reached 3.01 million tons [96]. 05. Inventory - Soda Ash Inventory: As of September 20, 2025, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7556 million tons, down 41,900 tons from the previous week; the inventory available days were 14.56 days, down 0.34 days from the previous week. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 100,610 tons, down 2,840 tons from the previous week; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 74,950 tons, down 1,350 tons from the previous week [101][104].
玻璃周报：价格重心上移，市场稳定出货-20250920
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-20 15:01