聚酯周报：意外检修增多，原料估值承压下行-20250920

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PX, last week, PXN oscillated downward. The main reasons were the postponement of PX maintenance plans, numerous unexpected maintenance of downstream PTA under low processing fees, and the delay of new device commissioning. The overall load was low, making it difficult for PX to reduce inventory. With weak terminal performance, PXN lacked the momentum to expand. Currently, PX load remains high, while downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, with a low overall load center. The expected delay of new PTA device commissioning and PX maintenance is expected to continue the PX inventory accumulation cycle. The valuation is currently at a moderately low level. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [11]. - Regarding PTA, last week, PXN continued to be weak, PTA processing fees rebounded, and the overall price slightly decreased. The valuation was slightly repaired, but the upward space was relatively limited. On one hand, the terminal performance continued to be weaker than expected. On the other hand, even though PTA continued to reduce inventory through maintenance, the long - term outlook was still weak under the commissioning pressure. In the future, the unexpected maintenance volume on the supply side remains high, and the inventory reduction pattern will continue. However, due to the weak long - term pattern, the processing fee space is limited. On the demand side, the inventory and profit pressure of polyester and chemical fiber are low, and the load is expected to remain high. But the weak terminal performance exerts pressure on raw materials. In terms of valuation, PXN is continuously affected by the weak terminal performance and the continuous unexpected maintenance of PTA under low processing fees. The upward valuation needs to be driven by the improvement of the terminal or the maintenance of raw materials. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. - Concerning MEG, the industrial fundamentals show that the load of domestic and overseas devices is at a high level, and the domestic supply is high. But in the short term, due to the low port arrival volume, the port inventory is expected to be low. In the medium term, as imports arrive in a concentrated manner and the domestic load is expected to remain high, coupled with the gradual commissioning of new devices, the inventory will increase in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is relatively high year - on - year. It is recommended to short - allocate on rallies under the weak outlook, but beware of the risk that the weak expectation may not be realized [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - PX: The price decreased last week. The 11 - contract dropped by 118 yuan to 6594 yuan, and the spot CFR China price fell by 16 dollars to 816 dollars. The supply load decreased slightly, with the Chinese load at 86.3% (down 1.5% month - on - month) and the Asian load at 78.2% (down 0.8% month - on - month). The demand side saw a PTA load of 75.9% (down 0.9% month - on - month). Inventory is expected to accumulate. The PXN decreased to 227 dollars, and the naphtha crack spread fell to 108 dollars. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - PTA: The price slightly declined. The 01 - contract dropped by 44 yuan to 4604 yuan. The supply load was 75.9% (down 0.9% month - on - month). The demand side had a polyester load of 91.4% (down 0.2% month - on - month). Inventory slightly increased, and the processing fee rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - MEG: The price dropped. The 01 - contract fell by 15 yuan to 4257 yuan. The supply load was 73.8% (down 1.1% month - on - month). The demand side had a polyester load of 91.4% (down 0.2% month - on - month). Port inventory is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term and increase in the medium term. It is recommended to short - allocate on rallies [13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - PX: The basis oscillated, and the spread weakened. The position and trading volume increased [32][35]. - PTA: The basis declined, and the spread weakened. The position and trading volume were at a low level [43][46]. - MEG: The basis decreased, and the spread weakened. The position and trading volume were at a low level [54][62]. - Overseas Commodity Prices: Data on overseas prices of PX, MEG, and PTA FOB China were presented [71]. 3.3. p - Xylene Fundamentals - Capacity and Production: New capacity is expected to be added in 2025. The Chinese and Asian operating rates showed certain trends [76][78]. - Import: The import volume in July remained stable [82]. - Inventory: The inventory continued to decline in July [93]. - Cost and Profit: PXN weakened, the short - process spread was relatively strong, and the naphtha crack spread oscillated upward [97]. - Aromatic Blending Oil: The gasoline performance was weak, and there were various indicators and trends in aromatic blending oil [104]. 3.4. PTA Fundamentals - Capacity and Production: New capacity has been added in 2024 and 2025. The load showed certain fluctuations [137][140]. - Export: The export volume rebounded in July [142]. - Inventory: The inventory remained at a low level [144]. - Profit and Valuation: The processing fee was slightly repaired [147]. 3.5. Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals - Capacity and Production: New capacity is expected to be added in 2024 and 2025. The operating rate was relatively high, and the load of syngas - based devices was at a historical high [151][154]. - Import: The import volume slightly declined in July, and there was no import from the US [156]. - Inventory: The port inventory slightly increased this week [157]. - Cost: Coal prices rebounded, and ethylene prices slightly increased [167]. - Profit: The profit of naphtha - based MEG was relatively high [170]. 3.6. Polyester and Terminal - Polyester: New capacity of polyester filament was put into production. The basis of staple fiber and bottle chips oscillated. The operating rate slightly decreased. The inventory pressure of filament was moderate. The profit of filament was neutral, and the profit of bottle chips and staple fiber remained stable [184][187][190]. - Terminal: The operating rate remained stable. Orders remained stable, inventory decreased, and raw material stocking decreased. The domestic demand growth rate of textile and clothing recovered, while exports were weak. The US clothing wholesale inventory was lower than the pre - pandemic high, and the inventory increased marginally [211][219][223].