国信期货热卷周报：政策面扰动，热卷偏强震荡-20250921

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As the new seasonal peak season begins, steel demand rebounds month-on-month but the strength is weak. The supply side of steel mills is at a relatively high level, and the steel inventory pressure is large. The output of building materials decreases, but the output of hot-rolled coils increases, and the inventory of the five major steel products accumulates. For the long-term steel demand, although there is resilience, there is no obvious increase expected in real estate, infrastructure, manufacturing, etc. The market's main concern is whether anti-involution trading will occur again. Pay attention to policy news and terminal demand. The operating strategy is to participate in the short-term long side [35]. Section Summaries 1.走势回顾 - The main contract of hot-rolled coils fell from a high and then fluctuated narrowly in the short term [7]. - After the futures rebounded and then fell, the spot price followed [8]. 2.基差价差 - The 01, 05, and 10 basis of hot-rolled coils are 46, 23, and 3 respectively [12]. - The cold-hot spread is not elaborated in detail in the text. 3.供需分析 - The production profit of hot-rolled coils is 144, the 01, 05, and 10 disk profits are 199, 172, and 213 respectively [19]. - The output of hot-rolled coils is 326.49, cold-rolled coils is 85.06, rebar is 206.45, and the five major steel products is 855.46 [22]. - The raw materials are not elaborated in detail in the text. - The inventory of hot-rolled coils is 377.99, cold-rolled coils is 180.16, rebar is 650.28, and the five major steel products is 1519.74 [28]. - The terminal demand is not elaborated in detail in the text. - The export of hot-rolled coils is flat month-on-month but remains strong year-on-year [33]. 4.后市展望 - With the start of the new seasonal peak season, steel demand recovers month-on-month but weakly. The supply of steel mills is high, and inventory pressure is large. The output of building materials decreases while that of hot-rolled coils increases, and the inventory of the five major steel products accumulates. The long-term steel demand has resilience, but there is no obvious increase expected in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing. The market focuses on whether anti-involution trading will occur again. Pay attention to policy news and terminal demand. The operation strategy is to participate in the short-term long side [35].